MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

ARI

37-36

PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDT

41-29

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

1 signal · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Tropicana Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Ryne Nelson

SP · #19

3-5

W-L

4.97

ERA

1.24

WHIP

83.1

Last 3 starts

vsLAAW(3-5)7.0 IP2 ER5 K

@MIAL(2-5)4.0 IP7 ER2 K

vsLAD-7.0 IP2 ER3 K

Home starter

Nick Martinez

SP · #28

6-2

W-L

2.60

ERA

1.16

WHIP

83.0

Last 3 starts

@LAD-5.1 IP3 ER6 K

vsBOSW(6-2)7.0 IP3 ER2 K

vsDETL(5-2)4.0 IP6 ER1 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 6/26

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.1%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low
Shane McClanahanTB
5.2± 2.1low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.0high
Yandy DiazTB
1.1± 1.1high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.9± 1.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.8± 1.9high
Yandy DiazTB
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan ViladeTB
0.7± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.7± 0.9high
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium
Ryne NelsonARI
3.0± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.686

OPS

.717

▶

.714

.305

OBP

.319

▶

.333

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.44

4.21

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.92

1.27

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.