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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
SF
SF
30-43
PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDT
ARI
ARI
37-36
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
47.6%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs SF.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 74 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Landen RouppSF5.8± 2.1low
- Michael SorokaARI5.3± 2.8low
- Logan WebbSF5.3± 1.8low
Hits
- Jung Hoo LeeSF1.4± 1.2high
- Luis ArraezSF1.4± 0.8high
- Bryce EldridgeSF1.3± 0.8high
Total bases
- Bryce EldridgeSF2.3± 2.1high
- Matt ChapmanSF2.3± 3.8high
- Casey SchmittSF2.0± 3.0high
RBIs
- Matt ChapmanSF1.3± 2.4high
- Bryce EldridgeSF0.7± 1.2high
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI3.6± 3.1low
- Zac GallenARI3.3± 1.9medium
- Ryne NelsonARI3.0± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
SF
league avg
ARI
.727
OPS
◀
.717
.692
.309
OBP
.319
.307
4.15
Runs / G
4.50
4.19
4.48
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.17
1.39
WHIP
1.31
▶1.27
8.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.2
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant