Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 28, 2026

FINAL+4TB

ARI

41-42

48-33

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

17,195 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TB no-vig %

63.0%

open 63.1% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.4%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
70.8%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
73.1%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
69.9%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.13

CLV pp

Open price

-194

Close price

-193

Open no-vig

63.1%

Close no-vig

63.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ARI at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.8pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

ARI

★ best

+288DraftKings

edge +5.8pp · implied 24.2%

no live price

Book	ARI	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+288★	-416	+5.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 111 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Griffin JaxTB
4.9± 2.4high
Ian SeymourTB
4.4± 2.8high

Hits

James McCannARI
1.4± 1.3high
Ildemaro VargasARI
1.2± 1.0high
Ryan WaldschmidtARI
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

James McCannARI
2.2± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.7high
James McCannARI
1.0± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.0± 2.7medium
Mitch BrattARI
2.4± 2.3low
Kohl DrakeARI
2.3± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.709

OPS

.720

▶

.729

.314

OBP

.318

▶

.329

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.39

4.20

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.68

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.15

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

ARI 1 · TB 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +21pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
TB	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.262	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.245	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
C. CarrollRF	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.188	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.219	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Smith1B	.161	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.237	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
I. Vargas1B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	5	1	1	1	9

Player

.262

.245

.278

.188

.219

.161

.237

.256

.228

.280

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	6.0	8	5	5	2	3	93
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
D. JamesonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	10	5	5	2	5	119

Player

M. KellySP

6.0

J. LoaisigaRP

1.0

D. JamesonRP

1.0

Team

8.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.336	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.292	3	1	3	2	1	1	0
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.197	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. SimpsonLF	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.207	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.236	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
T. WallsSS	.223	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.253	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Palacios2B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	10	5	3	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	6.0	3	0	0	1	5	99
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16
T. MartinRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	9	139

Team

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.