Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at ARI?

The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 1, 2026

FINAL+2SF

36-50

ARI

43-43

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

17,142 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ARI spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

ARI no-vig %

52.1%

open 53.2% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ARI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
50.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.3%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.02

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SF at ARI?: The model favors SF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+32.4pp

best edge · ARI · DraftKings

no live price

ARI

★ best

+380DraftKings

edge +32.4pp · implied 19.6%

Book	SF	ARI	Best edge
DraftKings	-594	+380★	+32.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ARI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
4.9± 2.0high
Robbie RaySF
4.8± 1.8high
Logan WebbSF
4.7± 2.0medium

Hits

Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 1.4high
James McCannARI
1.3± 1.2high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Gabriel MorenoARI
2.0± 1.6high
James McCannARI
2.0± 2.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
James McCannARI
0.8± 1.4high
Tyler LocklearARI
0.8± 1.4low

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.5± 2.6low
Merrill KellyARI
3.0± 2.7medium
Tyler MahleSF
2.9± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.725

OPS

◀

.720

.709

.310

OBP

.318

▶

.314

4.20

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.58

4.38

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.20

1.35

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 6 · ARI 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	6
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.326	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.278	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. EldridgeDH	.275	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
R. Devers1B	.242	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
H. RamosLF	.268	4	2	2	2	1	0	0
J. LeeRF	.319	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.308	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
D. CavanaughC	.286	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
C. Koss2B	.111	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.280	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.228	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	6	11	6	2	1	6

Player

.326

.278

.275

.242

.268

.319

.308

.286

.111

.280

.228

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. McDonaldSP	6.0	1	0	0	0	5	90
E. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20
R. WalkerRP	0.0	4	4	4	0	0	12
D. SmithRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
C. KilianRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	7	4	4	1	10	145

Player

6.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.267	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.269	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
G. MorenoC	.283	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Del CastilloDH	.182	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Arenado3B	.243	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Smith1B	.152	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. TroyLF	.235	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		34	4	7	3	0	1	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	5.2	7	6	6	1	4	95
R. ThompsonRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	9
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	16
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	21
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	11	6	6	1	6	157

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

ARI vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.