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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CLE
DET

DET

85-73

1
5
CLE

CLE

86-72

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
26,293 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 1 · CLE 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0010000001
CLE002010205

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 65-42
62%Last 30 · 328-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Detroit Tigers, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Trey Sweeney

Trey Sweeney

SS

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Brayan Rocchio

Brayan Rocchio

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET85-73
1
5
CLE86-72
DET85-73·CLE86-72
DET

DET

85-73

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-22001001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44000001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT2744
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-33000011
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33010000
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44110001
SPRINT27.765
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
1-22010000
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team6-3131161029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
4.1533061
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.2000020
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0100010
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0100000
Team8.0853291
CLE

CLE

86-72

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44011000
SPRINT26.530
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
1-44112102
SPRINT25.513
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
2-44022000
SPRINT27.251
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
0-44000002
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-44010002
SPRINT27.354
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
0-44000003
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-33100010
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
1-33010000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
2-22220010
SPRINT27.354
P. HalpinP. HalpinCF
0-11100000
Team8-3333585129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
6.0511250
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.2000010
H. GaddisH. GaddisRP
0.1000010
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.2100020
C. SmithC. SmithRP
0.1000000
Team9.0611290

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    83 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.1 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.3 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      22%·79.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      1%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Holton
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      38%·82.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FC
      33%·89.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      68%·97.3 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      16%·91.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Montero
    14 pitches·7% CSW
    • FF
      79%·95.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      21%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      63%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·91.5 mph·0% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    105 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      28%·88.6 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·81.1 mph·57% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      4%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Junis
    28 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      36%·87.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Gaddis
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·89.6 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Smith
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      50%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

1

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5today
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Season series

CLE leads series 8-4

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5today
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

DETDET
T. Sweeney

T. Sweeney

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H

CLECLE
B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 5-1.

Win probability

CLE vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 57% WP

Sweeney · singled to right, Dingler to third.

CLEBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+17pp→ 68% WP

Valera · homered to center (393 feet), Rocchio scored.

CLEBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+10pp→ 84% WP

Kwan · singled to left, Rocchio scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0010000001
CLE00201020—5

Period scoring

DET won 0 · CLE won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
2

Inn 3

Meadows 1

Valera 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Kwan 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Ram 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
CLE

Play-by-play · 565 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  2. T9

    Dingler grounded out to second.

    · ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  5. T9

    Cade Smith pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  6. T9

    Smith relieved Junis

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  7. T9

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  8. T9

    McKinstry singled to left.

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  13. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Zach McKinstry

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  14. T9

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  15. T9

    Pérez popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  19. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Wenceel Perez

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  20. T9

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  21. T9

    Greene grounded out to second.

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

    +0.8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

  30. T9

    Jakob Junis pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 1·CLE 5

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

1

Runs

5

6

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

6

TB

14

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

9

K

9

13

LOB

16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    64
    5(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    302
    14(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 97
    62
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    301
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 96
    153
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 30, 25sim 96
    62
    5(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.0%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    61.1%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.6%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    61.5%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.