Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+4CLE

DET

85-73

CLE

86-72

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio

26,293 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
61.1%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.6%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.5%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 109 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
8.1± 3.0high
Joey CantilloCLE
6.1± 2.2high
Troy MeltonDET
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.4± 0.8high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.3± 1.4high
Max ClarkDET
1.3± 1.4low

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.5± 2.2high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
2.3± 4.4low
Max ClarkDET
2.2± 3.0low

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.0± 1.5high
Eduardo ValenciaDET
0.9± 2.3low
Gleyber TorresDET
0.9± 1.7high

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.5± 2.1high
Framber ValdezDET
2.5± 2.1high
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.4± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CLE

.732

OPS

◀

.720

.680

.320

OBP

◀

.318

.312

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.96

3.53

Team ERA

◀

4.18

3.82

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.27

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

DET 1 · CLE 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
CLE	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MeadowsCF	.213	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
G. Torres2B	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.253	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.261	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
W. PerezRF	.246	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.260	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.276	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. SweeneySS	.197	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.275	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Ibanez2B	.230	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	6	1	0	2	9

Player

.213

.259

.253

.241

.261

.246

.260

.276

.197

.275

.230

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlahertySP	4.1	5	3	3	0	6	83
T. HoltonRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21
R. MonteroRP	0.0	1	2	0	2	0	14
W. VestRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
Team	8.0	8	5	3	2	9	145

Player

4.1

1.2

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanLF	.277	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. ValeraLF	.242	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
J. Ramirez3B	.284	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. NaylorC	.194	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Arias3B	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. SchneemannCF	.211	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. KayfusLF	.216	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.236	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
J. NoelRF	.155	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	5	8	5	1	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	6.0	5	1	1	2	5	105
T. HerrinRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	14
H. GaddisRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
J. JunisRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	28
C. SmithRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	9	155

Team

DET

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.