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Live · 8
  • MLBTop 3
    TOR 0@BAL 0
    -14.8pphigh
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    MIA 0@NYM 0
    +5.7ppmedium
  • MLBBot 2
    MIN 1@PIT 2
    +29.4ppmedium
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    SD 1@WSH 0
    -33.7ppmedium
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    KC 0@TEX 1
    +10.5ppmedium
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    +23.8pplow
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    -10.1ppmedium
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    LAA 4@TB 1
    -52.8ppmedium
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FINAL+4TB
TB

TB

77-81

6
2
BAL

BAL

74-84

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
18,367 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 6 · BAL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB1110011106
BAL0000000202

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 64-42
62%Last 30 · 327-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios

2B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Tyler O'Neill

Tyler O'Neill

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB77-81
6
2
BAL74-84
TB77-81·BAL74-84
TB

TB

77-81

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
2-55220001
SPRINT29.496
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-55122100
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44011000
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000001
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44111102
SPRINT2993
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
3-44230000
SPRINT26.838
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-44010000
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-33011011
BB. Seymour★1B
0-44000003
Team11-37376115218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
4.0000330
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000020
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0000010
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0100100
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0222110
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000000
Team9.0322570
BAL

BAL

74-84

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.194
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
1-44012000
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT28.175
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.662
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
0-33000001
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-33000010
R. MountcastleR. Mountcastle★1B
0-44000001
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-11100021
SPRINT28.175
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-22000011
Team3-2828232057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WellsT. Wells★RP
4.0733141
D. EnnsD. EnnsRP
2.0210030
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
1.2221001
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.1000010
Team9.01164182

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Baz
    49 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.9 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      29%·85.7 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.0 mph·80% whiff
    • CH
      12%·89.7 mph·25% whiff
  • B. Baker
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·97.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      33%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.9 mph·67% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      39%·88.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      28%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      33%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·97.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      57%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      43%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      43%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.6 mph·0% whiff

BAL

  • T. Wells
    79 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.5 mph·16% whiff
    • CH
      25%·86.3 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.1 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Enns
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FC
      29%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Castillo
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      39%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      28%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FS
      50%·89.5 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      29%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

3

6

Runs

2

2

Errors

2

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2today
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6

Season series

Series tied 6-6

Jun 16BALBAL1@TBTB7
Jun 17BALBAL5@TBTB1
Jun 18BALBAL8@TBTB12
Jun 19BALBAL4@TBTB1
Jun 27TBTB8@BALBAL22
Jun 28TBTB11@BALBAL3
Jun 29TBTB1@BALBAL5
Jul 18BALBAL1@TBTB11
Jul 19BALBAL3@TBTB4
Jul 20BALBAL5@TBTB3
Sep 23TBTB0@BALBAL6
Sep 24TBTB6@BALBAL2today
Sep 25TBTB5@BALBAL6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 4th Inning

TBTB
R. Palacios

R. Palacios

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 BB

BALBAL
T. O'Neill

T. O'Neill

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

T. Wells

T. Wells

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat BAL 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 64% WP

B. Lowe · doubled to right, Simpson scored.

TBTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 71% WP

Feduccia · doubled to right, Palacios scored.

TBTop 4th Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 84% WP

Feduccia · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB1110011106
BAL0000000202

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

6

Runs

2

11

Hits

3

2

Errors

2

21

TB

3

2

HR

0

1

BB

5

8

K

7

15

LOB

14

Win probability

BAL vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TB won 5 · BAL won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Lowe 1

1
0

Inn 2

Feduccia 1

1
0

Inn 3

Lowe 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Gray 1

1
0

Inn 7

Caminero 1

1
2

Inn 8

Mangum 1

Westburg 2

0
0

Inn 9

TB
BAL

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 6·BAL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  3. B9

    Mountcastle flied out to right.

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  5. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Ryan Mountcastle

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  6. B9

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  7. B9

    Rutschman grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Mayo out at second.

    · ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

    −3pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  11. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Adley Rutschman

    · ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  12. B9

    Mayo ran for Basallo

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  13. B9

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  14. B9

    Basallo hit by pitch.

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

    +2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  18. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Samuel Basallo

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  19. B9

    Fairbanks relieved Baker

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 6·BAL 2

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 6·BAL 2

  22. T9

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  23. T9

    B. Lowe grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 6·BAL 2

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.13 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 26, 25sim 98
    212
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 96
    215
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 96
    33
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    261
    29(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    155
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 11, 25sim 95
    92
    10(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs