Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+4TB

77-81

BAL

74-84

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

18,367 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.4%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
55.9%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.60 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
5.8± 3.9high
Trevor RogersBAL
5.3± 1.9high
Kyle BradishBAL
5.2± 3.0high

Hits

Chandler SimpsonTB
1.3± 1.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 1.1high
Liam HicksTB
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.3± 2.7high
Nick FortesTB
1.8± 2.3high
Coby MayoBAL
1.7± 2.2high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.8± 1.8low
Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.9high
Coby MayoBAL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Freddy PeraltaTB
3.7± 3.4high
Kyle BradishBAL
2.5± 1.9high
Shane BazBAL
2.3± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

BAL

.732

OPS

◀

.719

.710

.329

OBP

◀

.318

.319

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

4.49

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.34

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 6 · BAL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BAL +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.300	5	2	2	0	0	0	1
B. Lowe2B	.258	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.259	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MangumCF	.295	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. Palacios2B	.294	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.171	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
B. Seymour1B	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team		37	6	11	5	2	1	8

Player

.300

.258

.259

.221

.295

.294

.222

.171

.186

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BazSP	4.0	0	0	0	3	3	49
E. UcetaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
G. JaxSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	12
B. BakerRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	24
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	3	2	2	5	7	117

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

117

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.245	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. Westburg3B	.264	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
G. HendersonSS	.272	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. O'NeillRF	.195	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
S. BasalloC	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.222	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	.201	1	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. Jackson2B	.278	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mayo3B	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	3	2	0	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WellsRP	4.0	7	3	3	1	4	79
D. EnnsRP	2.0	2	1	0	0	3	28
J. CastilloRP	1.2	2	2	1	0	0	18
Y. CanoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	11	6	4	1	8	139

Team

BAL

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.