Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+7SEA

COL

43-115

SEA

89-69

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

42,883 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

78.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
78.1%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
81.4%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
77.7%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 113 high confidence

Strikeouts

Logan GilbertSEA
6.7± 2.0high
Bryce MillerSEA
5.9± 4.4low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 1.7high

Hits

Cole YoungSEA
1.3± 1.2high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
1.2± 1.2high
Cole CarriggCOL
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Mickey MoniakCOL
2.2± 2.5high
Randy ArozarenaSEA
2.2± 2.4high
Willi CastroCOL
2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

Mickey MoniakCOL
0.9± 1.3high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.6high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
3.9± 1.9high
Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.3± 2.7medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.1± 2.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

SEA

.744

OPS

◀

.719

.688

.323

OBP

◀

.318

.310

4.82

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.98

5.51

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.77

1.51

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.19

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

COL 2 · SEA 9 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +28pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2
SEA	3	2	0	2	0	0	1	1	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MoniakLF	.270	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
H. GoodmanC	.277	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. Crim1B	.224	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
J. BeckLF	.264	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. TovarSS	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.228	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. FernandezRF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. Bernabel3B	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.202	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
Team		29	2	2	2	1	1	11

Player

.270

.277

.224

.264

.254

.228

.238

.258

.202

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GordonRP	3.1	8	7	5	0	3	70
A. SenzatelaRP	2.2	3	0	0	1	4	51
A. ChivilliRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	1	30
Team	8.0	14	9	7	1	8	151

Player

T. GordonRP

3.1

A. SenzatelaRP

2.2

A. ChivilliRP

2.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ArozarenaLF	.233	4	0	1	1	0	0	3
C. RaleighC	.248	5	2	3	4	2	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.269	4	1	2	1	1	1	0
J. Naylor1B	.292	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. PolancoDH	.266	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.229	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
D. CanzoneDH	.305	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.248	3	2	0	0	0	0	1
J.P. CrawfordSS	.266	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. FordC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Rivas3B	.263	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	9	14	9	5	1	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	7.1	1	1	1	0	10	93
C. FergusonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	10
L. JacksonRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	23
Team	9.0	2	2	2	1	11	126

Team

COL

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs COL.

3 sub-models, blended.