Recent form
8-2
ATL +0.7 vs NYY -0.3 margin
ATL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees
ATL
ATL
69-45
PregameFri, 7:05 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
NYY
NYY
64-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Chris Sale
SP · #51
12-6
W-L
2.08
ERA
1.02
WHIP
143
K
117.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYMW(12-6)6.0 IP0 ER9 K
vsSDW(11-6)6.0 IP3 ER11 K
vsTEXW(10-6)7.0 IP0 ER6 K
Home starter
Max Fried
SP · #54
4-3
W-L
3.12
ERA
0.99
WHIP
68
K
75.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@CHC-5.1 IP1 ER7 K
@CHW-3.0 IP3 ER4 K
vsPIT-5.0 IP0 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob48% / 52%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs ATL.
NYY is 5-5 recently; ATL is 8-2.
52.0%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY5–5-0.3
- ATL8–2+0.7
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- ATL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 0 straight road games; ATL has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8strikeouts · ±2.6
Cam Schlittler · 7.8 K · last-10 8.2 vs season 7.1.
- Chris SaleATL7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Chris Sale · 7.1 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 7.2.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.6strikeouts · ±1.8
Ryan Weathers · 5.6 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 6.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.6%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
50.2%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.9%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.57 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs ATL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 113 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.8± 2.6high
- Chris SaleATL7.1± 2.4high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.2± 2.7low
Hits
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.2± 1.0high
- Drake BaldwinATL1.0± 0.9high
- Matt OlsonATL1.0± 0.8high
Total bases
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.5± 2.8high
- Matt OlsonATL2.3± 2.2high
- Ozzie AlbiesATL1.8± 1.8high
RBIs
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY0.8± 0.9high
- Dominic SmithATL0.7± 1.1high
- Austin RileyATL0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Bryce ElderATL3.1± 2.3high
- Tyler MahleATL3.0± 2.4medium
- Will WarrenNYY2.5± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATL
league avg
NYY
.732
OPS
◀
.719
.722
.315
OBP
◀
.318
.310
4.89
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.54
3.63
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.33
1.24
WHIP
1.30
▶1.19
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶9.0
The One modelTossup
Fri, Aug 7ATL
Braves
83-56
vs52.0%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
75-63
ATL 48.0%win prob52.0% NYY
NYY 1525 · ATL 1547Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- MetsPirates8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Blue JaysPhillies8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/7 - 6:45 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/7 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/7 - 7:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/7 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/7 - 9:45 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/7 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
