HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBBot 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    +3.6pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA2:14 - 4th
    TOR 73@WSH 81
    +37.6pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+7NYY
CHW

CHW

58-100

1
8
NYY

NYY

90-68

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
37,751 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

CHW

league avg

NYY

NYY

.740

OPS

.715

▶

.762

.327

OBP

.319

.330

4.69

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.03

4.28

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.36

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

CHW 1 · NYY 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +20pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHW0100000001
NYY032000038

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Chicago White Sox, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1A. VolpeNYY+24.8pp
  2. 2J. CannonCHW−22.2pp
  3. 3T. GrishamNYY+20.3pp

CHW · top performer

CHW
Brooks Baldwin

Brooks Baldwin

LF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

3.050OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Meidroth2B
.2604000001
C. Mead1B
.2504000000
E. QueroC
.2724000001
M. Vargas3B
.2313110011
C. MontgomerySS
.2264020001
L. Sosa2B
.2593011001
C. JulksLF
.2733000001
B. BaldwinLF
.2382010010
M. TaylorRF
.1973000002
- W. RobertsonLF
.1431000000
Team31151028

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
F. EllardRP
0.20003130
J. CannonSP
4.16551675
T. AlexanderRP
2.02000229
C. BooserRP
1.02331021
Team8.0108859155

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamCF
.2373212121
A. JudgeRF
.3284234210
C. BellingerLF
.2694010010
G. StantonDH
.2634010001
B. Rice1B
.2564110001
P. Goldschmidt1B
.2784111003
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.2474011001
A. VolpeSS
.2134110000
R. McMahon3B
.1993100012
- J. DominguezLF
.2570000000
- A. WellsC
.2180000000
Team348108359

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. FriedSP
7.041127107
D. WilliamsRP
1.00000014
P. BlackburnRP
1.01000110
Team9.051128131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHW

  • J. Cannon
    75 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      32%·87.1 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.8 mph·31% whiff
    • ST
      19%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      1%·91.3 mph·100% whiff
  • F. Ellard
    30 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      73%·95.7 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.0 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      3%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Alexander
    29 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      34%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Booser
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      52%·79.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·84.9 mph·50% whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    107 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      23%·86.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.3 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      16%·75.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.9 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      14%·94.0 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CH
      50%·84.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      36%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·92.1 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·79.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

1

Runs

8

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Sep 23CHWCHW2@NYYNYY3
Sep 24CHWCHW1@NYYNYY8today
Sep 25CHWCHW3@NYYNYY5

Season series

NYY lead series 5-1

Aug 28NYYNYY10@CHWCHW4
Aug 29NYYNYY10@CHWCHW2
Aug 30NYYNYY5@CHWCHW3
Aug 31NYYNYY2@CHWCHW3
Sep 23CHWCHW2@NYYNYY3
Sep 24CHWCHW1@NYYNYY8today
Sep 25CHWCHW3@NYYNYY5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHWCHW
B. Baldwin

B. Baldwin

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

J. Cannon

J. Cannon

SP

Top reliever

4.1 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-4 · 2 HR · 3.050 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat CHW 8-1. Judge's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

NYY vs CHW

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 40% WP

Montgomery · singled to right, Vargas to third.

NYYBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+22pp→ 86% WP

Judge · homered to center (392 feet), Volpe scored and Grisham scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHW0100000001
NYY03200003—8

Period scoring

CHW won 0 · NYY won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
3

Inn 2

Sosa 1

Judge 3

0
2

Inn 3

Goldschmidt 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
3

Inn 8

Grisham 2

0

Inn 9

CHW
NYY

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  2. T9

    Robertson popped out to third.

    · ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  4. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Will Robertson

    · ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  5. T9

    Robertson hit for Julks

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  6. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  7. T9

    Sosa singled to left.

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  10. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  11. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  12. T9

    Montgomery struck out looking.

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  18. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  19. T9

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  20. T9

    Vargas flied out to center.

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  23. T9

    Paul Blackburn pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  24. T9

    Blackburn relieved Williams

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  27. B8

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  28. B8

    Bellinger lined out to center.

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHW 1·NYY 8

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

1

Runs

8

5

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

6

TB

23

0

HR

3

2

BB

5

8

K

9

13

LOB

18

Player projections

NYY vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.7± 3.3low
  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.1± 2.4low

Hits

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.4high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

  • Miguel VargasCHW
    2.0± 3.0high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.6± 3.1low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Anthony KayCHW
    2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

73.1%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    69.5%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    71.2%

    P(NYY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    69.3%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381