Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Athletics at Boston Red Sox
ATH
ATH
45-69
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
BOS
BOS
62-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jack Perkins
RP · #50
2-7
W-L
6.72
ERA
1.40
WHIP
89
K
73.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsDETL(2-7)5.1 IP6 ER9 K
vsBOSL(2-6)5.2 IP2 ER4 K
@ARI-5.0 IP3 ER4 K
Home starter
Payton Tolle
SP · #70
6-6
W-L
3.30
ERA
1.15
WHIP
110
K
101.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-6.0 IP2 ER7 K
@ATHW(6-6)5.1 IP2 ER7 K
vsBAL-5.2 IP4 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob24% / 76%
LeanHome · 26pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 3-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs ATH.
BOS enters on a 7-game win streak; ATH is 1-9 over its last 10.
76.4%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS9–1+3.5
- ATH1–9-3.4
Situational
- BOS2d rest
- ATH2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; ATH has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Sonny GrayBOS5.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Sonny Gray · 5.4 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 4.9.
- J.T. GinnATH5.0strikeouts · ±1.6
J.T. Ginn · 5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 4.6.
- Jack PerkinsATH4.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Jack Perkins · 4.7 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 3.3.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
BOS is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-27BOS @ ATH4–2
- 2026-07-28BOS @ ATH3–4
- 2026-07-29BOS @ ATH4–2
- 2026-07-30BOS @ ATH5–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
78.2%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
77.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
81.1%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
78.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.67 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs ATH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 2.4medium
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.9± 2.8medium
- Gage JumpATH5.8± 3.0low
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.4± 0.8high
- Jeff McNeilATH1.1± 0.8high
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.7± 2.5high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.0± 2.7high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.6± 0.9high
- Jarren DuranBOS0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Jack PerkinsATH3.1± 1.7high
- Gage JumpATH2.8± 3.4low
- Jacob LopezATH2.4± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ATH
league avg
BOS
.718
OPS
.719
.717
.319
OBP
.318
.317
4.32
Runs / G
4.50
4.35
5.40
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.49
1.49
WHIP
1.30
▶1.22
8.6
K / 9
8.5
8.7
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 7ATH
Athletics
54-83
vs76.4%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
72-65
ATH 23.6%win prob76.4% BOS
BOS 1586 · ATH 1400Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
