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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TEX
MIN

MIN

68-90

2
4
TEX

TEX

80-78

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
24,622 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

MIN 2 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1000000102
TEX000100304

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Minnesota Twins, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Edouard Julien

Edouard Julien

2B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Josh Smith

Josh Smith

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN68-90
2
4
TEX80-78
MIN68-90·TEX80-78
MIN

MIN

68-90

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-44111102
SPRINT29.597
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-33000011
SPRINT27.457
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44010003
SPRINT26.632
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
0-44000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-33000001
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-33120001
SPRINT26.225
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-33011000
SPRINT27.251
R. FitzgeraldR. Fitzgerald★3B
0-33000001
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
0-33000001
Team5-30302521111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BradleyT. Bradley★SP
6.0211291
T. AdamsT. AdamsRP
0.2333000
G. CabreraG. CabreraRP
0.1000200
C. LawerysonC. LawerysonRP
1.0000020
Team8.05444111
TEX

TEX

80-78

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-33000002
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-33111112
SPRINT27.354
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-33000010
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
0-33000012
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-44000003
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT28.891
B. McKinneyB. McKinney★LF
1-33111000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
1-33110000
SPRINT25.18
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
1-33010000
Team5-29294521411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. deGromJ. deGrom★SP
5.0211181
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
2.0100010
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.0211010
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000010
Team9.05221111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

2

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Sep 24MINMIN4@TEXTEX1
Sep 25MINMIN2@TEXTEX4today
Sep 25MINMIN4@TEXTEX0

Season series

TEX leads series 3-2

Jun 10TEXTEX16@MINMIN4
Jun 11TEXTEX2@MINMIN6
Jun 12TEXTEX16@MINMIN3
Sep 24MINMIN4@TEXTEX1
Sep 25MINMIN2@TEXTEX4today
Sep 25MINMIN4@TEXTEX0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 7th Inning

MINMIN
E. Julien

E. Julien

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

T. Bradley

T. Bradley

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
J. Smith

J. Smith

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. deGrom

J. deGrom

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat MIN 4-2. McKinney's play in the bottom 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TEX vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 69% WP

Smith · homered to right center (361 feet).

TEXTop 7th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 65% WP

Jeffers · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Larnach out at second.

TEXBottom 7th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 85% WP

McKinney · singled to left, Duran scored, McKinney to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1000000102
TEX00010030—4

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · TEX won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

McKinney 1

1
0

Inn 8

Lewis 1

0

Inn 9

MIN
TEX

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  2. T9

    Jeffers grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  9. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Ryan Jeffers

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  10. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  11. T9

    Larnach struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

    +3pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  17. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Trevor Larnach

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  18. T9

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  19. T9

    Clemens lined out to left.

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

    +4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  23. T9

    Phil Maton pitches to Kody Clemens

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  24. T9

    Maton relieved Armstrong

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  27. B8

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  28. B8

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

    −0.5pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIN 2·TEX 4

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

2

Runs

4

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

9

TB

9

1

HR

1

1

BB

4

11

K

11

9

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TEX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low

Hits

  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    64.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.6%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.8%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 23, 25sim 98
    202
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 98
    204
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    95
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    94
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    94
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 5, 25sim 93
    91
    7(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs