Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+2TEX

MIN

68-90

TEX

80-78

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

24,622 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
64.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.6%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.9%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 115 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.7high
Taj BradleyMIN
6.6± 2.9high
Jacob deGromTEX
6.5± 2.1high

Hits

Royce LewisMIN
1.2± 1.0high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.1± 0.7high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Royce LewisMIN
2.1± 1.6high
Brandon NimmoTEX
2.0± 2.1high
Ezequiel DuranTEX
1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.7± 1.2high
Royce LewisMIN
0.6± 1.1high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.5± 1.3high

Earned runs

Dean KremerMIN
3.4± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.1± 1.7medium
Nathan EovaldiTEX
3.0± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

TEX

.722

OPS

.719

.720

.317

OBP

.318

4.65

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.15

4.63

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.29

1.38

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.29

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

MIN 2 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.263	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
K. Clemens1B	.221	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. LarnachLF	.249	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
R. JeffersC	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Lee3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Julien2B	.216	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.238	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Fitzgerald3B	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.157	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	5	2	1	1	11

Player

.263

.221

.249

.259

.239

.216

.238

.205

.157

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	6.0	2	1	1	2	9	90
T. AdamsRP	0.2	3	3	3	0	0	16
G. CabreraRP	0.1	0	0	0	2	0	11
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
Team	8.0	5	4	4	4	11	129

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

129

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.180	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Smith2B	.252	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
J. Jung3B	.251	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Tellez1B	.257	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. OsunaLF	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. DuranSS	.232	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. McKinneyLF	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. HeimC	.215	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. HelmanCF	.244	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.227	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	4	5	2	1	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. deGromSP	5.0	2	1	1	1	8	74
R. GarciaRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
P. MatonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	5	2	2	1	11	117

Team

MIN

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.