MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6ATH

HOU

84-74

ATH

75-83

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

9,753 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.2%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.2%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.7± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.4± 3.3low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
4.8± 2.0low

Hits

Nick KurtzATH
1.1± 1.0high
Taylor TrammellHOU
1.1± 0.8low
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 2.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.5high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.4± 2.8low
Jacob LopezATH
2.8± 2.3low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

HOU 0 · ATH 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
ATH	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Altuve★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT27.867
I. Paredes★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.18
C. Correa★SS	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
C. Walker★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT25.920
J. Sanchez★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.818
Y. Diaz★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Meyers★CF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. Cole★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Urias★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. DubonSS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	5-31	31	0	5	0	0	1	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-3

1-4

2-4

1-4

0-2

0-3

0-3

0-2

0-3

0-1

0-1

0-1

Team

5-31

	Pitching
H. Brown★SP	5.0	6	4	4	2	5	0
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. KingRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	2
N. HernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	7	2

Pitching

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
N. Kurtz★1B	0-2	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
SPRINT26.632
S. Langeliers★C	4-4	4	2	4	2	1	0	0
SPRINT28.586
T. Soderstrom★LF	2-4	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
SPRINT26.735
B. Rooker★DH	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
SPRINT27.148
J. Wilson★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Butler★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Schuemann★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Bleday★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harris★3B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team	8-32	32	6	8	6	2	3	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI