Houston Astros vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+6ATH

HOU

84-74

ATH

75-83

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

9,753 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
54.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.0%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.1%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.9± 2.3medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 3.0low
Hunter BrownHOU
5.5± 2.6low

Hits

Jeremy PenaHOU
1.3± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.2high
Jose AltuveHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.6± 2.6high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 2.3high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Jeremy PenaHOU
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 0.9high
LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Ronel BlancoHOU
4.0± 1.4low
Jack PerkinsATH
3.1± 1.7high
Gage JumpATH
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

ATH

.738

OPS

◀

.719

.718

.322

OBP

.318

.319

4.66

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.33

4.60

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.41

1.36

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.49

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

HOU 0 · ATH 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
ATH	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Houston AstrosAthletics

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
I. Paredes3B	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CorreaSS	.286	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.234	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. SanchezRF	.194	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MeyersCF	.292	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ColeLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Urias3B	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.239	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.262	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. DubonLF	.246	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	1	9

Player

.263

.254

.286

.234

.194

.254

.292

.250

.232

.239

.262

.246

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrownSP	5.0	6	4	4	2	5	86
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
B. KingRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	13
N. HernandezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	7	127

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.290	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
S. LangeliersC	.266	4	2	4	2	1	0	0
T. SoderstromLF	.280	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. RookerDH	.264	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. WilsonSS	.315	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ButlerRF	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. SchuemannLF	.203	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BledayLF	.210	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Harris3B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. ThomasRF	.229	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	6	8	6	2	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. SeverinoSP	6.1	3	0	0	1	5	85
H. HarrisRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	19
E. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	32
Team	9.0	5	0	0	1	9	136

Team

HOU

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.