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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

65-94

4
3
ATL

ATL

75-84

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
32,898 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 4 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH1001010104
ATL0000010113

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Eli White

Eli White

CF

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH65-94
4
3
ATL75-84
WSH65-94·ATL75-84
WSH

WSH

65-94

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-44222200
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
2-44121100
SPRINT25.18
D. LileD. Lile★LF
3-44031001
SPRINT29.395
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44010001
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
J. AlfaroJ. Alfaro★C
0-44000002
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-33000002
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-33000001
Team9-3434494309
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. AlvarezA. Alvarez★RP
4.1200350
M. ParkerM. ParkerRP
0.2000100
J. FernandezJ. FernandezRP
1.0111101
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000230
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0111011
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0211021
Team9.06337113
ATL

ATL

75-84

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-33000023
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-55000003
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-44010012
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
1-55111101
SPRINT26.632
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-44010000
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-22111121
SPRINT25.614
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44010000
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-44000001
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-11000010
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
1-11111100
SPRINT30.499+
Team6-33333633711
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
7.0633072
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0111021
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0200000
Team9.0944093

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • A. Alvarez
    83 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.2 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      27%·82.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      1%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      57%·88.0 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      43%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Fernandez
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      86%·96.4 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Parker
    11 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      73%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·84.8 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    95 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      38%·92.2 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      32%·84.7 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.1 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      56%·88.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      31%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.0 mph·— whiff
  • P. Johnson
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      60%·85.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      30%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·92.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3today

Season series

ATL wins series 9-4

May 12WSHWSH3@ATLATL4
May 13WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 14WSHWSH5@ATLATL4
May 15WSHWSH2@ATLATL5
May 20ATLATL3@WSHWSH5
May 21ATLATL0@WSHWSH0
May 22ATLATL7@WSHWSH8
Sep 15ATLATL11@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL6@WSHWSH3
Sep 16ATLATL5@WSHWSH0
Sep 17ATLATL9@WSHWSH4
Sep 22WSHWSH5@ATLATL11
Sep 23WSHWSH2@ATLATL3
Sep 24WSHWSH4@ATLATL3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

A. Alvarez

A. Alvarez

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

ATLATL
E. White

E. White

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

WSH beat ATL 4-3. Wood's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 6th Inning · 3-0
+24pp→ 80% WP

Wood · homered to center (445 feet).

ATLBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+19pp→ 30% WP

White · homered to center (436 feet).

WSHBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+14pp→ 100% WP

Baldwin · grounded out to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH1001010104
ATL0000010113

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ATL won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Bell 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Wood 1

Baldwin 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
1

Inn 8

Wood 1

Ozuna 1

0
1

Inn 9

White 1

WSH
ATL

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  3. B9

    Baldwin grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

    −14pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  10. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Drake Baldwin

    · ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  11. B9

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  12. B9

    Acuña Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

    +5pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  18. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  19. B9

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  20. B9

    Olson struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

    −10pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  25. B9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Matt Olson

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  26. B9

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  27. B9

    Profar struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

    −11pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 4·ATL 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

4

Runs

3

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

19

TB

15

3

HR

3

0

BB

7

9

K

11

6

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    92
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    95
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 96
    202
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    94
    13(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 96
    94
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 93
    42
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · ATL favored

  • Elo Static

    64.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    61.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.4%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.