Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

65-94

ATL

75-84

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

32,898 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.1± 2.4high
Cade CavalliWSH
5.6± 3.6high
Tyler MahleATL
4.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Drake BaldwinATL
1.0± 0.9high
Matt OlsonATL
1.0± 0.8high
Austin RileyATL
0.9± 0.9high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.3± 2.2high
Abimelec OrtizWSH
1.8± 2.3low
CJ AbramsWSH
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Dominic SmithATL
0.7± 1.1high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 1.1high
Austin RileyATL
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleATL
3.0± 2.4medium
Bryce ElderATL
2.9± 2.4high
Miles MikolasWSH
2.9± 2.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

ATL

.766

OPS

◀

.719

.732

.327

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.89

4.75

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.63

1.40

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.24

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 4 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	4
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Washington NationalsAtlanta Braves

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.256	4	2	2	2	2	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.259	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.235	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. LileLF	.296	4	0	3	1	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.213	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.251	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AlfaroC	.257	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Hassell IIICF	.219	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. DeJong3B	.232	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.232	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	4	9	4	3	0	9

Player

.256

.259

.235

.296

.213

.251

.257

.219

.232

.188

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AlvarezSP	4.1	2	0	0	3	5	83
M. ParkerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	11
J. FernandezRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	14
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	28
J. RutledgeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	14
J. FerrerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	22
Team	9.0	6	3	3	7	11	172

Player

4.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ProfarLF	.254	3	0	0	0	0	2	3
M. Olson1B	.272	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.284	4	0	1	0	0	1	2
D. BaldwinC	.274	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
H. KimSS	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.233	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
M. Harris IICF	.246	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.240	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.220	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Wisely2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. WhiteRF	.236	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	3	7	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	7.0	6	3	3	0	7	95
T. KinleyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	9	4	4	0	9	121

Team

WSH

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.