New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+7CHC

NYM

81-77

310

CHC

89-69

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

35,060 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
58.7%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.2%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.2± 1.6high
Christian ScottNYM
6.0± 1.6medium
Kevin GausmanCHC
5.4± 2.3high

Hits

Alex BregmanCHC
1.2± 0.8high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.2± 1.0high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.4± 3.0high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.2± 3.5high
Carson BengeNYM
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Francisco LindorNYM
0.9± 2.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Tyrone TaylorCHC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanCHC
3.1± 2.1high
David PetersonCHC
2.9± 3.0high
Colin ReaCHC
2.7± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

CHC

.692

OPS

.720

▶

.753

.305

OBP

.318

▶

.338

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.13

4.09

Team ERA

4.18

4.05

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.25

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

NYM 3 · CHC 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3
CHC	0	0	5	1	2	2	0	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. LindorSS	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SotoLF	.267	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.271	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. MarteRF	.274	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.235	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. NimmoRF	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.260	2	1	1	2	1	1	1
J. McNeil2B	.247	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TaylorLF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	4	3	2	1	7

Player

.267

.267

.271

.274

.235

.261

.260

.247

.216

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TongSP	2.0	7	5	5	2	1	56
R. LoveladyRP	2.0	1	2	1	1	2	31
C. HolmesSP	1.0	0	1	0	0	0	14
S. ManaeaRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	16
R. HelsleyRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	24
Team	8.0	11	10	8	3	6	141

Player

2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.256	4	2	2	2	1	1	0
N. Hoerner2B	.301	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
I. HappLF	.241	4	1	1	2	0	0	1
M. BallesterosC	.286	3	2	2	1	0	1	1
S. SuzukiRF	.242	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. KellyC	.249	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.244	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.245	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. ShawRF	.230	4	3	3	1	1	0	1
R. McGuireC	.227	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	10	11	8	2	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoydSP	5.1	2	2	2	1	3	86
D. PalenciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
A. CivaleSP	3.0	2	1	1	0	3	40
Team	9.0	4	3	3	1	7	136

Team

NYM

CHC

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.