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  • WNBA6:00 - 1st
    SEA 4@TOR 10
    +11.2ppmedium
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7CHC
NYM

NYM

81-77

3
10
CHC

CHC

89-69

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
35,060 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

NYM 3 · CHC 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000200103
CHC0051220010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off New York Mets, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Matt Shaw

Matt Shaw

RF

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM81-77
3
10
CHC89-69
NYM81-77·CHC89-69
NYM

NYM

81-77

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44111100
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000002
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-44000001
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44110002
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.278
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-22112111
SPRINT25.716
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-22000000
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-33000000
Team4-3131343217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TongJ. Tong★SP
2.0755210
R. LoveladyR. LoveladyRP
2.0121121
C. HolmesC. HolmesSP
1.0010000
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
1.0222011
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
2.0100020
Team8.011108362
CHC

CHC

89-69

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
2-44222110
SPRINT25.716
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44110010
SPRINT28.278
I. HappI. Happ★LF
1-44112001
SPRINT27.662
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-33221011
SPRINT24.53
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44011000
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
0-44000002
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-33101000
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44010001
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
3-44331101
SPRINT28.992
Team11-343410118236
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BoydM. Boyd★SP
5.1222131
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
0.2000010
A. CivaleA. CivaleSP
3.0211031
Team9.0433172

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

11

3

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 23NYMNYM9@CHCCHC7
Sep 25NYMNYM3@CHCCHC10today
Sep 25NYMNYM8@CHCCHC5

Season series

NYM lead series 3-2

May 9CHCCHC2@NYMNYM7
May 10CHCCHC6@NYMNYM5
May 11CHCCHC2@NYMNYM6
Sep 23NYMNYM9@CHCCHC7
Sep 25NYMNYM3@CHCCHC10today
Sep 25NYMNYM8@CHCCHC5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

NYMNYM
F. Alvarez

F. Alvarez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

R. Helsley

R. Helsley

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 1 H

CHCCHC
M. Shaw

M. Shaw

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Boyd

M. Boyd

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat NYM 10-3.

Win probability

CHC vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 93% WP

Happ · doubled to right, Shaw scored and Busch scored, Hoerner to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000200103
CHC00512200—10

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · CHC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
5

Inn 3

Happ 2

0
1

Inn 4

Shaw 1

2
2

Inn 5

Alvarez 2

Ballesteros 1

0
2

Inn 6

Busch 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Soto 1

0

Inn 9

NYM
CHC

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  2. T9

    Nimmo grounded out to third.

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  8. T9

    Aaron Civale pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  9. T9

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  10. T9

    Vientos grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  13. T9

    Aaron Civale pitches to Mark Vientos

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  14. T9

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  15. T9

    Marte grounded out to third.

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  19. T9

    Aaron Civale pitches to Starling Marte

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  22. B8

    ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  23. B8

    Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Swanson out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  24. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  25. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  26. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  27. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  28. B8

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  29. B8

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

  30. B8

    Busch flied out to left.

    · ·

    NYM 3·CHC 10

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

10

4

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

10

TB

20

2

HR

2

1

BB

3

7

K

6

8

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 25, 25sim 98
    218
    16(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    241
    16(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    17
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 95
    286
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    112
    18(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 12, 25sim 94
    36
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHC vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.5± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    58.7%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    63.2%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.3%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.