Park factor
96 total idx
LoanDepot Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins
LAA
LAA
43-71
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
MIA
MIA
58-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketloanDepot park · Miami, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
Tyler Phillips
RP · #30
3-5
W-L
3.53
ERA
1.35
WHIP
66
K
89.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYMW(3-5)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
vsPHI-5.0 IP2 ER5 K
@HOUL(2-5)4.1 IP2 ER2 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob32% / 68%
LeanHome · 18pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/7
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
MIA vs LAA.
MIA is 6-4 recently; LAA is 2-8.
67.8%
model · MIA win prob
Recent form
- MIA6–4+0.4
- LAA2–8-2.0
Situational
- MIA2d rest
- LAA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. MIA has 6 straight road games; LAA has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Reid DetmersLAA6.4strikeouts · ±2.0
Reid Detmers · 6.4 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.6.
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.4strikeouts · ±1.9
Sandy Alcantara · 5.4 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.
- Walbert UrenaLAA5.1strikeouts · ±1.5
Walbert Urena · 5.1 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 4.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
68.3%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
67.6%
P(MIA win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
67.6%
P(MIA win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
68.6%
P(MIA win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.50 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.4± 2.0high
- Eury PerezMIA5.9± 3.2medium
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA5.4± 1.9high
Hits
- Mike TroutLAA1.1± 1.2high
- Vaughn GrissomLAA1.1± 0.9high
- Otto LopezMIA1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Kyle StowersMIA2.2± 2.3high
- Vaughn GrissomLAA1.8± 2.0high
- Griffin ConineMIA1.6± 2.2high
RBIs
- Vaughn GrissomLAA0.8± 0.9high
- Owen CaissieMIA0.7± 1.1high
- Heriberto HernandezMIA0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Grayson RodriguezLAA3.5± 2.7low
- Ryan JohnsonLAA3.3± 3.3low
- Janson JunkMIA2.8± 3.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
MIA
.693
OPS
.719
▶.728
.312
OBP
.318
▶.324
4.15
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.34
4.49
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.00
1.36
WHIP
1.30
▶1.24
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 7LAA
Angels
51-86
vs67.8%MIA
MIA★
Marlins
69-67
LAA 32.2%win prob67.8% MIA
MIA 1504 · LAA 1401Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
