Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+1PIT

PIT

69-89

CIN

80-78

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

30,725 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.7%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 105 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.1± 2.1high
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.1± 2.2high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.2± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.1± 2.1high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.7± 1.0high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high
Rhett LowderCIN
2.7± 2.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CIN

.745

OPS

◀

.719

.709

.333

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.03

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.18

4.31

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.42

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.40

9.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 4 · CIN 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
PIT	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	4
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.201	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. TrioloSS	.229	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.243	3	3	1	0	0	1	0
S. Horwitz1B	.262	5	0	3	3	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.240	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. PhamLF	.244	3	0	1	0	0	2	2
N. Gonzales3B	.264	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. Yorke3B	.224	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
H. DavisC	.160	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SuwinskiRF	.141	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. CanarioLF	.225	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	4	8	4	0	4	12

Player

.201

.229

.243

.262

.240

.244

.264

.224

.160

.141

.225

.375

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	6.0	4	0	0	0	7	85
J. LawrenceRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	24
I. MattsonRP	0.2	1	1	1	1	0	16
D. SantanaRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	21
D. MoretaRP	0.2	2	1	0	0	1	18
Y. RamirezRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	37
Team	11.0	10	3	2	3	14	201

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

0.2

1.1

Team

11.0

201

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.257	5	1	1	0	0	1	1
N. MarteRF	.270	6	1	2	1	1	0	2
G. LuxLF	.264	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
S. Steer1B	.240	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
E. De La CruzSS	.266	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Stewart1B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StephensonC	.233	5	1	4	1	1	0	1
W. BensonRF	.226	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. McLain2B	.220	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Hayes3B	.234	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.349	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Espinal3B	.243	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		42	3	10	3	2	3	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. GreeneSP	6.0	5	2	2	2	7	96
C. BurnsSP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	30
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	26
T. SantillanRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	17
N. MartinezSP	1.0	1	1	0	1	0	12
Team	11.0	8	4	2	4	12	181

Team

PIT

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.