Park factor
98 total idx
PNC Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
NYM
NYM
50-66
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
PIT
PIT
57-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Line movement
200 snapshots
PIT spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.0 · +0.5
PIT no-vig %
56.4%
open 57.2% · -0.8
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Z
Zac Thornton
SP · #49
2-2
W-L
2.88
ERA
1.05
WHIP
24
K
34.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIAL(2-2)4.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsATLW(2-1)6.1 IP3 ER5 K
@MILW(1-1)6.0 IP0 ER2 K
Home starter
Carmen Mlodzinski
RP · #50
6-3
W-L
3.15
ERA
1.31
WHIP
76
K
94.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@CIN-3.0 IP0 ER4 K
vsARI-3.0 IP0 ER1 K
vsCHC-2.0 IP1 ER2 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+118 / -142
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesNYM lead series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take PIT on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
PIT vs NYM.
PIT has dropped 3 straight; NYM is 6-4 over its last 10.
55.8%
model · PIT win prob
Recent form
- PIT2–8-1.7
- NYM6–4+1.6
Situational
- PIT1d restB2B
- NYM1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PIT has 8 straight road games; NYM has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.2strikeouts · ±1.6
Nolan McLean · 7.2 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 6.8.
- Paul SkenesPIT7.1strikeouts · ±2.1
Paul Skenes · 7.1 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.8.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Braxton Ashcraft · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.3.
Line move
open -149→-144toward NYM
The market has moved 0.8pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
55.5%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
54.8%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.4%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.22 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PIT vs NYM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
116
projections · 96 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Nolan McLeanNYM7.2± 1.6high
- Paul SkenesPIT7.1± 2.1high
- Braxton AshcraftPIT6.1± 2.2high
Hits
- Carson BengeNYM1.2± 1.1high
- Bo BichetteNYM1.1± 1.1high
- Brandon LowePIT1.1± 0.9high
Total bases
- Francisco LindorNYM2.2± 3.5high
- Brandon LowePIT2.2± 2.1high
- Carson BengeNYM2.0± 1.9high
RBIs
- Francisco LindorNYM0.9± 2.0high
- Luis TorrensNYM0.7± 1.4high
- Brandon LowePIT0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Braxton AshcraftPIT2.9± 2.2high
- Paul SkenesPIT2.9± 1.9high
- Kodai SengaNYM2.5± 2.6medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYM
league avg
PIT
.692
OPS
.720
▶.745
.305
OBP
.318
▶.333
4.16
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.03
4.09
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.31
1.30
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.32
9.1
K / 9
8.5
▶9.4
The One modelLean
Fri, Aug 7NYM
Mets
60-78
vs55.7%PIT
PIT★
Pirates
62-68
NYM 44.3%win prob55.7% PIT
PIT 1485 · NYM 1476Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Blue JaysPhillies8/7 - 6:40 PM EDT
- RedsNationals8/7 - 6:45 PM EDT
- BravesYankees8/7 - 7:05 PM EDT
- AngelsMarlins8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- AthleticsRed Sox8/7 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GuardiansWhite Sox8/7 - 7:40 PM EDT
- TwinsBrewers8/7 - 7:40 PM EDT
- CubsRoyals8/7 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRangers8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- RockiesCardinals8/7 - 8:15 PM EDT
- AstrosPadres8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- DodgersDiamondbacks8/7 - 9:40 PM EDT
- RaysMariners8/7 - 9:45 PM EDT
- TigersGiants8/7 - 10:15 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
