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Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs
TOR
TOR
52-59
PregameThu, 2:20 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHC
CHC
63-48
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Kevin Gausman
SP · #34
5-10
W-L
4.38
ERA
1.29
WHIP
127
K
127.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTLW(5-10)5.2 IP1 ER4 K
@BOSL(4-10)6.0 IP3 ER6 K
vsTBL(4-9)3.1 IP4 ER1 K
Home starter
David Peterson
SP · #19
6-7
W-L
5.52
ERA
1.48
WHIP
85
K
101.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYY-6.1 IP1 ER8 K
@STLW(6-7)5.2 IP2 ER3 K
vsDETW(5-7)6.2 IP0 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
51.3%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 99 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.7high
- Kevin GausmanTOR5.4± 2.3high
- Trey YesavageTOR5.3± 3.0medium
Hits
- Nico HoernerCHC1.3± 1.4high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.2± 1.3high
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.5± 3.0high
- Alex BregmanCHC1.9± 2.8high
- Nico HoernerCHC1.8± 2.4high
RBIs
- Seiya SuzukiCHC0.9± 0.9high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.8± 1.0high
- George SpringerTOR0.8± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR3.7± 4.0low
- Kevin GausmanTOR3.1± 2.1high
- Aaron CivaleCHC3.0± 2.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
CHC
.684
OPS
.720
▶.752
.305
OBP
.318
▶.339
3.95
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.13
4.09
Team ERA
4.18
4.11
1.31
WHIP
1.31
▶1.26
9.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
