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CAR
7Live6:31 - 2nd
ARI
14Updated 9:05 PM ET
Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium · Canton, OH
6:31 - 2ND+7ARI
CAR
0-0
714
ARI
0-0
NFL · Drive chart
7 drives · 3 TD · 3 PuntPuntCAR3p · 3y PuntARI6p · 19y PuntCAR5p · 35y TDARI13p · 96y TDCAR10p · 67y TDARI4p · 60y —CAR9p · 50y
Ensemble breakdown
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Qb Elo
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Dvoa Proxy
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Live model · pick
Receipts
Player props
Tale of the tape
Team rate stats · season-to-date
Tale of the tape
nflverse · weekly aggregates
CAR
league avg
ARI
20.1
Pts / game
23.5
▶23.6
311
Yds / game
342
▶349
194
Pass yds / G
225
▶256
116
Rush yds / G
◀
117
93
1.1
TO / G
0.9
▶0.9
Data via ESPN · nflverse · Next Gen Stats (via nflverse)
