Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+2MIL

MIL

96-63

87-72

Petco Park · San Diego, California

41,462 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.4%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
46.3%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.1%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.4%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 117 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.7high
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.2± 4.5medium
Logan HendersonMIL
6.2± 2.8low

Hits

Jackson ChourioMIL
1.2± 1.0high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.2± 1.1high
Jake BauersMIL
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jake BauersMIL
2.0± 1.7high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.9high
Jackson MerrillSD
1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

Luis LaraMIL
0.8± 1.3high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.4high
Brice TurangMIL
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Walker BuehlerSD
3.0± 2.8high
Robert GasserMIL
2.5± 3.1low
Dustin MayMIL
2.3± 2.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

.734

OPS

◀

.719

.694

.336

OBP

◀

.318

.312

4.97

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.23

3.45

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.21

1.15

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.33

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 3 · SD 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	3
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. YelichDH	.266	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. Turang2B	.287	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.316	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. FrelickRF	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Bauers1B	.237	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
A. MonasterioSS	.281	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
D. JansenC	.230	3	1	2	1	1	1	1
R. Hoskins1B	.237	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. PerkinsCF	.230	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OrtizSS	.232	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	10	3	1	3	9

Player

.266

.270

.287

.316

.291

.260

.237

.281

.230

.237

.230

.232

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PatrickRP	3.0	2	0	0	2	6	57
E. FeddeSP	2.2	1	1	1	0	2	33
A. AshbyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
N. MearsRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	18
J. KoenigRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
A. UribeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	6	1	1	3	13	146

Player

3.0

2.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.288	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. MerrillCF	.264	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
G. Sheets1B	.254	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
X. BogaertsSS	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.268	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.246	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
F. FerminC	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. JohnsonRF	.342	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	1	6	1	1	3	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	5.0	6	1	1	2	8	100
D. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
A. MorejonRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	17
K. HartRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
J. EstradaRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	24
Team	9.0	10	3	3	3	9	163

Team

MIL

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs MIL.

3 sub-models, blended.