Recent form
7-3
CIN +0.7 vs WSH -1.6 margin
CIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
CIN
CIN
55-58
PregameFri, 6:45 PM EDTMLB.TV
WSH
WSH
56-60
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketNationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesWSH leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs CIN.
WSH is 2-8 recently; CIN is 7-3.
56.5%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH2–8-1.6
- CIN7–3+0.7
Situational
- WSH2d rest
- CIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 7 straight road games; CIN has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5strikeouts · ±2.6
Chase Burns · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.5.
- Cade CavalliWSH5.6strikeouts · ±3.6
Cade Cavalli · 5.6 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.5.
- Brady SingerCIN5.1strikeouts · ±1.1
Brady Singer · 5.1 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.4.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.5%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
55.1%
P(WSH win)
44%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(WSH win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.2%
P(WSH win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.05 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 2.5high
- Cade CavalliWSH5.6± 3.6high
- Brady SingerCIN5.1± 1.1high
Hits
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.1± 1.0high
- Jose TrevinoCIN1.0± 1.4high
- Sal StewartCIN1.0± 0.7high
Total bases
- Jose TrevinoCIN2.0± 3.2high
- Abimelec OrtizWSH2.0± 2.7low
- Elly De La CruzCIN1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Sal StewartCIN1.0± 1.4high
- CJ AbramsWSH0.7± 1.1high
- Elly De La CruzCIN0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Miles MikolasWSH2.9± 2.7high
- Jake IrvinWSH2.8± 2.4low
- Rhett LowderCIN2.7± 3.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
WSH
.706
OPS
.719
▶.766
.310
OBP
.318
▶.327
4.16
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.34
4.41
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.75
1.40
WHIP
1.30
1.40
8.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.6
The One modelLean
Fri, Aug 7CIN
Reds
64-70
vs56.5%WSH
WSH★
Nationals
67-67
CIN 43.5%win prob56.5% WSH
WSH 1483 · CIN 1471Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant