Park factor
104 total idx
Fenway Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
CHW
CHW
59-53
PregameThu, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
BOS
BOS
61-51
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Luis Castillo
SP · #58
3-9
W-L
5.06
ERA
1.39
WHIP
86
K
99.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-5.0 IP5 ER2 K
vsCINL(3-9)7.0 IP3 ER3 K
@TBL(3-8)5.0 IP4 ER4 K
Home starter
Ranger Suarez
SP · #55
4-3
W-L
3.15
ERA
1.16
WHIP
105
K
100.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-4.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsTOR-4.0 IP0 ER6 K
@LAA-2.2 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs CHW.
BOS enters on a 6-game win streak; CHW is 5-5 over its last 10.
61.6%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS8–2+2.5
- CHW5–5+0.3
Situational
- BOS2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; CHW has 4.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.3pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3strikeouts · ±2.0
Sean Burke · 7.3 K · last-10 8 vs season 6.4.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Sonny Gray · 5.4 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 4.9.
- Anthony KayCHW4.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Anthony Kay · 4.2 K · last-10 4.4 vs season 3.9.
Head-to-head · 4-0 · last 4
BOS is 4-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-07BOS @ CHW8–1
- 2026-07-08BOS @ CHW5–0
- 2026-07-09BOS @ CHW2–1
- 2026-08-04CHW @ BOS2–14
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
62.7%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
61.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
63.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.90 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 118 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.3± 2.0high
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 2.4medium
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.9± 2.8medium
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.4± 0.8high
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.1± 1.0high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW1.1± 0.7high
Total bases
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.7± 2.5high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW2.4± 2.6high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.0± 2.7high
RBIs
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW0.8± 1.9high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.6± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Noah SchultzCHW3.4± 2.6low
- Davis MartinCHW3.1± 3.4high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.5± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
BOS
.722
OPS
.720
.717
.316
OBP
.318
.317
4.76
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.36
4.08
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.52
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.23
8.6
K / 9
8.5
8.6
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6CHW
White Sox
75-60
vs61.6%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
71-65
CHW 38.4%win prob61.6% BOS
BOS 1582 · CHW 1526Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
