Starter edge
3.15 ERA
Ranger Suarez vs Luis Castillo - 5.06 ERA
Suarez owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving BOS cleaner opening script tonight.
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Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox
CHW
CHW
59-54
PregameThu, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
BOS
BOS
62-51
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 8.21
L. Castillo
3-9 · 5.06 ERA
vs
R. Suarez
4-3 · 3.15 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketFenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts
Line movement
200 snapshots
BOS spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 9.0
open O/U 9.0
BOS no-vig %
62.2%
open 62.8% · -0.6
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Luis Castillo
SP · #58
3-9
W-L
5.06
ERA
1.39
WHIP
86
K
99.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-5.0 IP5 ER2 K
vsCINL(3-9)7.0 IP3 ER3 K
@TBL(3-8)5.0 IP4 ER4 K
Home starter
Ranger Suarez
SP · #55
4-3
W-L
3.15
ERA
1.16
WHIP
105
K
100.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@LAD-4.2 IP3 ER2 K
vsTOR-4.0 IP0 ER6 K
@LAA-2.2 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+173 / -187
Model edge
Win prob37% / 63%
LeanHome · 13pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 2-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take BOS on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
CHW
- 1.C. Meidroth2B
- 2.M. Murakami1B
- 3.M. Vargas3B
- 4.R. GrichukDH
- 5.C. MontgomerySS
- 6.J. BartC
- 7.B. DoyleCF
- 8.B. MontgomeryRF
- 9.L. AcunaLF
BOS
- 1.N. Sogard1B
- 2.C. RafaelaCF
- 3.W. AbreuRF
- 4.C. Durbin3B
- 5.M. YoshidaDH
- 6.J. DuranLF
- 7.A. MonasterioSS
- 8.A. Seigler2B
- 9.C. WongC
Scouting report · pre-game
BOS vs CHW.
BOS enters on a 7-game win streak; CHW is 5-5 over its last 10.
63.0%
model · BOS win prob
Recent form
- BOS9–1+3.5
- CHW5–5+0.2
Situational
- BOS1d restB2B
- CHW1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BOS has 0 straight road games; CHW has 5.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.5 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.5pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1strikeouts · ±2.4
Sean Burke · 7.1 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.3.
- Sonny GrayBOS5.7strikeouts · ±2.7
Sonny Gray · 5.7 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.
- Anthony KayCHW4.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Anthony Kay · 4.2 K · last-10 4.4 vs season 3.9.
Head-to-head · 5-0 · last 5
BOS is 5-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-07BOS @ CHW8–1
- 2026-07-08BOS @ CHW5–0
- 2026-07-09BOS @ CHW2–1
- 2026-08-04CHW @ BOS2–14
- 2026-08-05CHW @ BOS0–4
Line move
open -192→-187toward CHW
The market has moved 0.6pp toward the away side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
64.1%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
62.3%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
64.6%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.94 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BOS vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 118 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW7.1± 2.4high
- Payton TolleBOS6.0± 2.4medium
- Ranger SuarezBOS5.9± 2.8medium
Hits
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.3± 0.8high
- Caleb DurbinBOS1.1± 0.9high
- Jarren DuranBOS1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2.7± 2.5high
- Wilyer AbreuBOS2.3± 2.8high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW2.3± 2.7high
RBIs
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.1± 1.3high
- Munetaka MurakamiCHW0.8± 1.9high
- Andruw MonasterioBOS0.6± 0.9high
Earned runs
- Noah SchultzCHW3.4± 2.6low
- Davis MartinCHW3.1± 3.4high
- Luis CastilloCHW2.5± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
BOS
.719
OPS
.719
.717
.315
OBP
.318
.317
4.72
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.35
4.08
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.49
1.30
WHIP
1.30
▶1.22
8.6
K / 9
8.5
8.7
The One modelEdge
Thu, Aug 6CHW
White Sox
75-61
vs63.0%BOS
BOS★
Red Sox
72-65
CHW 37.0%win prob63.0% BOS
BOS 1586 · CHW 1522Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
