Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+6BOS

BOS

87-71

TOR

90-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

39,438 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
53.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.9%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.5%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 108 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.7high
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 2.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.9± 2.8medium

Hits

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.1± 0.9high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.7± 2.5high
Wilyer AbreuBOS
2.3± 2.8high
Jarren DuranBOS
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Andruw MonasterioBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Jameson TaillonTOR
3.5± 2.7medium
Max ScherzerTOR
3.4± 3.9low
Shane BieberTOR
2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

TOR

.717

OPS

◀

.719

.680

.317

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.35

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.88

3.49

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.04

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · TOR 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	7
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.257	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. StorySS	.267	5	1	3	0	0	0	2
A. Bregman3B	.275	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. YoshidaDH	.260	5	2	2	2	1	0	0
R. GonzalezDH	.309	5	1	2	2	0	0	1
C. RafaelaCF	.246	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. LoweDH	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. AbreuRF	.251	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.240	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
Team		38	7	12	7	2	3	8

Player

.257

.267

.275

.260

.309

.246

.273

.251

.240

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	8.0	3	0	0	0	6	100
P. TolleSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	26
Team	9.0	4	1	1	1	7	126

Player

G. CrochetSP

8.0

100

P. TolleSP

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.304	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Clement2B	.276	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.295	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. SantanderRF	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.233	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.262	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.241	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. BargerRF	.244	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		30	1	4	1	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	5.0	10	4	4	0	5	86
B. LittleRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
J. BerriosSP	2.0	2	3	3	2	3	39
T. NanceRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
Team	9.0	12	7	7	3	8	145

Team

BOS

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.