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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6BOS
BOS

BOS

87-71

7
1
TOR

TOR

90-68

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario
39,438 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · TOR 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS3000100307
TOR0000000011

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 5, 25sim 97
    147
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    196
    12(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 96
    105
    2(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 96
    21
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    143
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    104
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Toronto Blue Jays and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela

CF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TOR · top performer

TOR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS87-71
7
1
TOR90-68
BOS87-71·TOR90-68
BOS

BOS

87-71

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000012
T. StoryT. Story★SS
3-55130002
SPRINT27.969
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-44110010
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-55222100
SPRINT26.123
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
2-55122001
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-33120010
SPRINT28.790
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-44010000
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-44113101
SPRINT257
Team12-38387127238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
8.0300060
P. TolleP. TolleSP
1.0111111
Team9.0411171
TOR

TOR

90-68

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. SpringerG. Springer★DH
0-44000002
SPRINT25.920
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
0-33000001
A. KirkA. Kirk★C
0-44000000
A. SantanderA. Santander★RF
0-33000002
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-33000000
D. VarshoD. Varsho★CF
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.597
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-33111101
SPRINT27.560
Team4-3030141117
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. ScherzerM. Scherzer★SP
5.01044051
B. LittleB. LittleRP
1.0000000
J. BerriosJ. BerriosSP
2.0233231
T. NanceT. NanceRP
1.0000100
Team9.01277382

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    100 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.2 mph·26% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.5 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.3 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Tolle
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      69%·99.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      31%·89.6 mph·17% whiff

TOR

  • M. Scherzer
    86 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.5 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.8 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      9%·76.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      1%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Berrios
    39 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      44%·93.0 mph·13% whiff
    • SV
      36%·83.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      13%·85.2 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      8%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Nance
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      33%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      33%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • KC
      38%·87.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      38%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

4

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1today
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6

Season series

TOR leads series 7-5

Apr 7TORTOR6@BOSBOS2
Apr 8TORTOR6@BOSBOS1
Apr 9TORTOR2@BOSBOS1
Apr 10TORTOR3@BOSBOS4
Apr 29BOSBOS10@TORTOR2
Apr 30BOSBOS6@TORTOR7
May 1BOSBOS2@TORTOR4
Jun 27TORTOR9@BOSBOS0
Jun 28TORTOR1@BOSBOS15
Jun 29TORTOR5@BOSBOS3
Sep 23BOSBOS4@TORTOR1
Sep 24BOSBOS7@TORTOR1today
Sep 25BOSBOS1@TORTOR6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 1st Inning

BOSBOS
C. Rafaela

C. Rafaela

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcherGem

8.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H

TORTOR
I. Kiner-Falefa

I. Kiner-Falefa

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. Scherzer

M. Scherzer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 10 H

How it ended

BOS beat TOR 7-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TOR vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 75% WP

Yoshida · doubled to right, Story scored, Bregman to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS3000100307
TOR0000000011

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · TOR won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Gonz 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Yoshida 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

3
0

Inn 8

Narv 3

0
1

Inn 9

Kiner-Falefa 1

BOS
TOR

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  3. B9

    Kirk lined out to right.

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  9. B9

    Payton Tolle pitches to Alejandro Kirk

    · ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  10. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  11. B9

    Barger walked.

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball 4

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  22. B9

    Payton Tolle pitches to Addison Barger

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  23. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  24. B9

    Clement flied out to left.

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  27. B9

    Payton Tolle pitches to Ernie Clement

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  28. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  29. B9

    Springer struck out looking.

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·TOR 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

7

Runs

1

12

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

20

TB

8

2

HR

1

3

BB

1

8

K

7

16

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

TOR vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Kevin GausmanTOR
    2.2± 2.3low
  • Patrick CorbinTOR
    2.0± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    53.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.9%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.