MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SF

STL

78-81

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

32,409 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.2%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
6.1± 2.1low
Trevor McDonaldSF
5.4± 2.3low
Logan WebbSF
5.2± 1.6low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.3± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 1.0high
Bryan TorresSTL
1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

Casey SchmittSF
2.4± 2.2high
Willy AdamesSF
2.3± 2.3high
Bryan TorresSTL
2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

Casey SchmittSF
0.9± 1.3high
Rafael DeversSF
0.8± 1.6high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.9low
Logan WebbSF
3.1± 2.6low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

STL 3 · SF 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
SF	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
B. Donovan★3B	1-4	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
SPRINT25.18
I. Herrera★DH	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
SPRINT25.513
A. Burleson★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
N. Arenado★3B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
SPRINT25.29
L. Nootbaar★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
T. Saggese★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. Pages★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Walker★RF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Scott II★CF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.798
J. FerminLF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	7-32	32	3	7	3	0	3	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

2-3

1-4

0-3

0-2

1-4

1-4

0-4

1-3

0-1

Team

7-32

	Pitching
S. Gray★SP	6.0	7	3	2	2	7	1
K. LeahySP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0
Team	8.0	11	4	3	3	9	1

Pitching

Player

S. Gray★SP

6.0

K. LeahySP

1.0

R. O'BrienRP

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
H. Ramos★LF	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Devers★1B	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
SPRINT25.716
W. Adames★SS	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Eldridge★DH	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
C. Schmitt★DH	3-4	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
SPRINT2872
J. Lee★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Koss★2B	1-3	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
D. Gilbert★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Knizner★C	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	1	0

Team	11-35	35	4	11	3	1	3	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI