St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+1SF

STL

78-81

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California

32,409 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.0%
P(SF win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.1%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.1± 2.0high
Logan WebbSF
5.0± 2.0high
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
4.9± 2.2high

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.3± 0.8high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 0.9high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Jung Hoo LeeSF
2.4± 2.7high
Osleivis BasabeSF
2.3± 3.2low
Alec BurlesonSTL
2.0± 3.6high

RBIs

Osleivis BasabeSF
1.1± 2.0low
Daniel SusacSF
0.7± 1.5high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Carson WhisenhuntSF
3.6± 2.3low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.9± 2.1high
Carson SeymourSF
2.7± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

.694

OPS

.719

▶

.722

.315

OBP

◀

.318

.309

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.38

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.36

7.7

K / 9

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

STL 3 · SF 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
SF	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

St. Louis CardinalsSan Francisco Giants

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.287	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.286	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
A. Burleson1B	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.236	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. NootbaarLF	.237	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
T. SaggeseLF	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
P. PagesC	.232	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. WalkerRF	.215	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Scott IICF	.215	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. ChurchCF	.173	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FerminLF	.309	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	0	3	10

Player

.287

.286

.293

.236

.237

.259

.232

.215

.215

.173

.309

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	6.0	7	3	2	2	7	99
K. LeahySP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	13
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	16
Team	8.0	11	4	3	3	9	128

Player

S. GraySP

6.0

K. LeahySP

1.0

R. O'BrienRP

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. RamosLF	.258	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.234	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
W. AdamesSS	.225	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. EldridgeDH	.125	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
C. SchmittLF	.240	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
J. LeeRF	.260	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Koss2B	.269	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
D. GilbertCF	.194	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. KniznerC	.227	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
P. BaileyC	.224	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. McCrayCF	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	11	3	1	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrubakerRP	4.0	4	2	2	1	4	68
C. SeymourRP	3.0	0	0	0	1	4	42
M. GageRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	12
J. ButtoRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	13
T. BeckRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	7	3	3	3	10	146

Team

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.