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FINAL+1LAA
KC

KC

79-79

2
3
LAA

LAA

71-87

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
29,266 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

KC 2 · LAA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000101002
LAA011100003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 21, 25sim 99
    253
    4(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 97
    183
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 97
    253
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    13
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Kansas City Royals, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Taylor Ward

Taylor Ward

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC79-79
2
3
LAA71-87
KC79-79·LAA71-87
KC

KC

79-79

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000003
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
1-22111100
SPRINT26.735
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33000000
L. MaileL. Maile★C
0-22000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-22000010
T. TolbertT. Tolbert★2B
0-22000001
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-11100001
SPRINT2744
C. JensenC. JensenC
1-11011000
SPRINT27.457
Team2-2929222129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
6.0532221
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
2.0100140
Team8.0632361
LAA

LAA

71-87

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
0-33000010
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.457
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000001
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.148
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
2-44020002
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-44111000
SPRINT28.278
S. RiveroS. Rivero★C
0-33000000
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
0-22000011
Team6-3131362136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. KikuchiY. Kikuchi★SP
5.0111161
J. FerminJ. FerminRP
1.0000000
SPRINT27.148
C. SilsethC. SilsethRP
1.0111010
L. GarciaL. GarciaRP
1.0000100
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000020
Team9.0222291

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

3

Errors

1

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

Sep 24KCKC8@LAALAA4
Sep 25KCKC2@LAALAA3today
Sep 26KCKC9@LAALAA4

Season series

LAA lead series 3-2

Sep 2LAALAA5@KCKC1
Sep 3LAALAA4@KCKC3
Sep 4LAALAA3@KCKC4
Sep 24KCKC8@LAALAA4
Sep 25KCKC2@LAALAA3today
Sep 26KCKC9@LAALAA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 8th Inning

KCKC
R. Grichuk

R. Grichuk

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
T. Ward

T. Ward

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Y. Kikuchi

Y. Kikuchi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat KC 3-2. Garcia's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

LAA vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 78% WP

Ward · homered to left center (420 feet).

KCTop 5th Inning · 1-3
+13pp→ 21% WP

Grichuk · homered to center (400 feet).

LAATop 8th Inning · 2-3
+19pp→ 83% WP

Garcia · grounded into double play, pitcher to second to first, Frazier out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000101002
LAA01110000—3

Period scoring

KC won 2 · LAA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Peraza 1

0
1

Inn 3

Ward 1

0
1

Inn 4

Rivero 1

1
0

Inn 5

Grichuk 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

KC
LAA

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  2. T9

    Yastrzemski struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  6. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  7. T9

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  8. T9

    Perez grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

    +6pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  10. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Salvador Perez

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  11. T9

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  12. T9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

    +8pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  17. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  18. T9

    Jansen relieved García

    · ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 2·LAA 3

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 2·LAA 3

  21. B8

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  22. B8

    Peraza grounded out to third.

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

    −0.8pp

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  27. B8

    Jonathan Bowlan pitches to Oswald Peraza

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  28. B8

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

  29. B8

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

    −1pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·LAA 3

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

2

Runs

3

2

Hits

6

3

Errors

1

5

TB

11

1

HR

1

2

BB

3

9

K

6

6

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.6± 1.5low

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    43.9%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.3%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.4%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.