Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+1LAD

LAD

89-69

ARI

80-78

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

43,417 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
52.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.8%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.86 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalLAD
7.5± 2.8medium
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.4high
Kris BubicLAD
5.7± 3.6low

Hits

James McCannARI
1.5± 1.2high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.4± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.8± 3.0high
James McCannARI
2.5± 2.5high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

James McCannARI
1.2± 1.3high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
2.9± 2.0high
Kris BubicLAD
2.6± 2.5low
Roki SasakiLAD
2.6± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

ARI

.771

OPS

◀

.719

.709

.339

OBP

◀

.318

.315

5.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

3.74

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.16

WHIP

◀

1.30

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · ARI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
LAD	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	5
ARI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.281	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. BettsSS	.262	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
F. Freeman1B	.291	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.243	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. HernándezLF	.246	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
T. Edman2B	.229	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
A. PagesCF	.276	5	1	1	2	1	0	3
M. Rojas2B	.264	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.256	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. Hernández1B	.191	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.283	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RushingC	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	5	11	5	1	1	13

Player

.281

.262

.291

.243

.246

.229

.276

.264

.256

.191

.254

.283

.188

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SnellSP	6.0	5	1	1	1	5	95
R. SasakiSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
A. VesiaRP	0.1	2	3	3	1	0	20
E. HenriquezRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	17
C. KershawSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
J. DreyerRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	0	11
B. TreinenRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. WrobleskiSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	8
Team	11.0	9	4	4	4	9	183

Player

6.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

11.0

183

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.284	5	2	3	0	0	0	0
G. PerdomoSS	.290	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. CarrollRF	.262	3	1	2	1	0	2	0
G. MorenoC	.288	3	0	1	2	0	1	0
B. Alexander3B	.232	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. McCannC	.252	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.206	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
I. Vargas1B	.262	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.145	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.246	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. McCarthyCF	.206	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LawlarLF	.164	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.249	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	4	9	4	0	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	6.0	7	3	3	0	9	92
A. SaalfrankRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	9
P. AbnerRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	15
J. MorilloRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. GarciaRP	2.0	2	1	0	0	3	29
Team	11.0	11	5	4	1	13	156

Team

LAD

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.