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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
LAD

LAD

89-69

5
4
ARI

ARI

80-78

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
43,417 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 5 · ARI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
LAD100200010015
ARI100000030004

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesLAD win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers went into Arizona Diamondbacks and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts

SS

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

RF

1.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
LAD89-69
5
4
ARI80-78
LAD89-69·ARI80-78
LAD

LAD

89-69

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-55110002
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
3-44131000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
1-55110002
SPRINT24.74
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000003
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-55011002
T. EdmanT. Edman★2B
3-55131000
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-55112103
SPRINT28.175
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-44010001
B. RortvedtB. Rortvedt★C
0-33000010
E. HernándezE. Hernández1B
0-22000000
Team11-414151151113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. SnellB. Snell★SP
6.0511150
R. SasakiR. SasakiSP
1.0000020
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
0.1233100
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
0.2200000
C. KershawC. KershawSP
1.0000000
J. DreyerJ. DreyerRP
0.2000200
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.1000000
J. WrobleskiJ. WrobleskiSP
1.0000020
Team11.0944490
ARI

ARI

80-78

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
3-55230000
SPRINT26.225
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33100011
SPRINT26.838
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-33121020
SPRINT29.496
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
1-33012010
SPRINT26.428
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33010002
SPRINT28.175
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
1-55010000
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-55000003
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-55010001
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-22000001
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthyLF
0-11000000
J. LawlarJ. LawlarLF
0-11000000
A. ThomasA. ThomasCF
0-22000001
Team9-3838494049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. NelsonR. Nelson★SP
6.0733091
A. SaalfrankA. SaalfrankRP
1.0000100
P. AbnerP. AbnerRP
0.2211010
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.1000000
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000000
B. GarciaB. GarciaRP
2.0210030
Team11.011541131

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

LAD win series 4-3

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4today
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Season series

Series tied 6-6

May 9LADLAD3@ARIARI5
May 10LADLAD14@ARIARI11
May 11LADLAD0@ARIARI3
May 11LADLAD8@ARIARI1
May 20ARIARI9@LADLAD5
May 21ARIARI3@LADLAD4
May 22ARIARI1@LADLAD3
Aug 30ARIARI3@LADLAD0
Aug 31ARIARI6@LADLAD1
Aug 31ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Sep 24LADLAD4@ARIARI5
Sep 25LADLAD5@ARIARI4today
Sep 25LADLAD8@ARIARI0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 11th Inning

LADLAD
M. Betts

M. Betts

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

ARIARI
C. Carroll

C. Carroll

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.467 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 7 H

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 5-4. Edman's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 11th inning

Win probability

ARI vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADTop 4th Inning · 3-1
+21pp→ 75% WP

Pages · homered to left center (395 feet), Edman scored.

ARIBottom 8th Inning · 4-2
+20pp→ 36% WP

Carroll · doubled to right, Marte scored, Perdomo to third.

LADTop 11th Inning · 5-4
+28pp→ 59% WP

Edman · singled to center, Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
LAD100200010015
ARI100000030004

Period scoring

LAD won 2 · ARI won 1

1
1

Inn 1

Betts 1

Moreno 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Pages 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
3

Inn 8

Hern 1

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

1
0

Inn 11

Edman 1

LAD
ARI

Play-by-play · 685 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 11

    End of the 11th inning

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  2. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  3. B11

    Thomas struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

    −16pp

  4. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  5. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  6. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  7. B11

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Alek Thomas

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  8. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  9. B11

    Vargas grounded out to shortstop, McCann to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

    −13pp

  10. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  11. B11

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Ildemaro Vargas

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  12. B11

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  13. B11

    Tawa struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

    −17pp

  14. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  15. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  16. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  17. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  18. B11

    Justin Wrobleski pitches to Tim Tawa

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  19. B11

    Wrobleski relieved Treinen

    ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  20. B11

    Pages in center field.

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  21. B11

    Call in left field.

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  22. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  23. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  24. T11

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  25. T11

    Pages struck out swinging.

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

    +5pp

  26. T11

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  27. T11

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  28. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  29. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

  30. T11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 5·ARI 4

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

4

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

17

TB

11

1

HR

0

1

BB

4

13

K

9

15

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · ARI favored

  • Elo Static

    52.0%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.7%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 98
    194
    29(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    198
    29(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    132
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    65
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 94
    184
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs