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FINAL+10PHI
MIA

MIA

77-81

1
11
PHI

PHI

93-65

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
36,816 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIA 1 · PHI 11 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0100000001
PHI0012305011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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MLB·Wed, Sep 24·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Miami Marlins, 11–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Eric Wagaman

Eric Wagaman

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Edmundo Sosa

Edmundo Sosa

2B

3.750OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

5

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA77-81
1
11
PHI93-65
MIA77-81·PHI93-65
MIA

MIA

77-81

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT28.381
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
0-44000001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33000003
C. NorbyC. Norby★1B
1-33110000
SPRINT2872
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-33000001
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
2-33021000
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.765
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
0-33000002
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.381
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-11000000
Team5-30301510010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. WeathersR. Weathers★SP
4.2655283
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1.0100100
SPRINT28.381
L. BacharL. BacharRP
1.1111021
V. BellozoV. BellozoRP
1.0454014
Team8.01211103118
PHI

PHI

93-65

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. BaderH. Bader★CF
0-55000002
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
4-55242201
SPRINT25.818
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
2-44221110
SPRINT26.632
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
0-55100002
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
1-33212111
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
3-44335301
SPRINT28.278
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
0-33000012
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44111101
SPRINT28.688
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
1-44010001
Team12-37371112118311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
7.03100100
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0100000
M. LazarM. LazarRP
1.0100000
Team9.05100100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • R. Weathers
    88 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.4 mph·26% whiff
    • ST
      34%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.0 mph·23% whiff
    • SI
      1%·93.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      1%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      33%·89.0 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      26%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sanoja
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • FA
      100%·62.0 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Bachar
    12 pitches·58% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      25%·85.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·90.4 mph·100% whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    103 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      29%·96.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      27%·85.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.5 mph·47% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.3 mph·25% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.9 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      13%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      7%·87.3 mph·— whiff
  • T. Mayza
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      67%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

12

1

Runs

11

2

Errors

2

Current series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 18MIAMIA2@PHIPHI7
Apr 19MIAMIA10@PHIPHI11
Apr 20MIAMIA7@PHIPHI5
Sep 23MIAMIA6@PHIPHI5
Sep 24MIAMIA1@PHIPHI11today
Sep 25MIAMIA0@PHIPHI1

Season series

PHI leads series 8-4

Apr 18MIAMIA2@PHIPHI7
Apr 19MIAMIA10@PHIPHI11
Apr 20MIAMIA7@PHIPHI5
Jun 16PHIPHI5@MIAMIA2
Jun 17PHIPHI3@MIAMIA8
Jun 18PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Jun 19PHIPHI2@MIAMIA1
Sep 5PHIPHI9@MIAMIA3
Sep 6PHIPHI4@MIAMIA2
Sep 7PHIPHI4@MIAMIA5
Sep 23MIAMIA6@PHIPHI5
Sep 24MIAMIA1@PHIPHI11today
Sep 25MIAMIA0@PHIPHI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MIAMIA
E. Wagaman

E. Wagaman

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

R. Weathers

R. Weathers

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 8 K · 5 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
E. Sosa

E. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game3-HR game

3-for-4 · 3 HR · 3.750 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

PHI beat MIA 11-1.

Win probability

PHI vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 60% WP

Schwarber · homered to center (408 feet).

PHIBottom 4th Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 73% WP

Sosa · homered to center (396 feet).

PHIBottom 5th Inning · 1-6
+12pp→ 97% WP

Sosa · homered to left (378 feet), Bohm and Kemp scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0100000001
PHI00123050—11

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · PHI won 4

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Wagaman 1

0
1

Inn 3

Schwarber 1

0
2

Inn 4

Sosa 1

0
3

Inn 5

Sosa 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
5

Inn 7

Kemp 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
PHI

Play-by-play · 532 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  2. T9

    Johnston flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  8. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Troy Johnston

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  9. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  10. T9

    Ramírez grounded out to shortstop, Sanoja to third.

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  12. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Agustin Ramirez

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  13. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  14. T9

    Lopez flied out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  16. T9

    Sanoja to second on wild pitch by Lazar.

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  17. T9

    Sanoja to second on wild pitch by Lazar.

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  23. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Otto Lopez

    · ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  24. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  25. T9

    Sanoja singled to left.

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  29. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Javier Sanoja

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

  30. T9

    Lazar relieved Mayza

    ·

    MIA 1·PHI 11

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

1

Runs

11

5

Hits

12

2

Errors

2

5

TB

38

0

HR

8

0

BB

3

10

K

11

7

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Javier SanojaMIA · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.0± 1.8high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.7± 2.8high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    60.6%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.6%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Oct 2, 25sim 99
    174
    19(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 97
    14
    10(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    12
    14(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 23, 25sim 96
    286
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    213
    22(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 27, 25sim 95
    177
    8(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
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