Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Sep 24, 2025

FINAL+10PHI

MIA

77-81

111

PHI

93-65

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

36,816 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
60.6%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.4%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 114 high confidence

Strikeouts

Zack WheelerPHI
7.5± 3.7medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
7.4± 3.3high
Cristopher SanchezPHI
6.3± 3.1high

Hits

Luis ArraezPHI
1.4± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 2.4high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.0± 1.6high
Trea TurnerPHI
2.0± 2.2high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Alec BohmPHI
0.7± 1.2high
Bryan De La CruzPHI
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.6± 2.8medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.1± 1.7high
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

PHI

.728

OPS

◀

.719

.704

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.305

4.34

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.39

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.20

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.31

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIA 1 · PHI 11 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
PHI	0	0	1	2	3	0	5	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. RamirezC	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.266	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. Norby1B	.251	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.279	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.251	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
J. MarseeCF	.311	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. WiemerRF	.236	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Sanoja3B	.242	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.275	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	1	0	0	10

Player

.248

.231

.266

.251

.279

.251

.311

.236

.242

.275

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	4.2	6	5	5	2	8	88
J. Sanoja3B	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	16
L. BacharRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	12
V. BellozoRP	1.0	4	5	4	0	1	27
Team	8.0	12	11	10	3	11	143

Player

4.2

1.0

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BaderCF	.315	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. SchwarberDH	.246	5	2	4	2	2	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.283	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
N. CastellanosRF	.253	5	1	0	0	0	0	2
O. KempLF	.237	3	2	1	2	1	1	1
E. SosaLF	.278	4	3	3	5	3	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Stott2B	.255	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. MarchanC	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. StubbsC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.281	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	11	12	11	8	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	7.0	3	1	0	0	10	103
T. MayzaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	9
M. LazarRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	5	1	0	0	10	127

Team

MIA

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.