Recent form
5-5
PHI +1.6 vs TOR -0.3 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
TOR
TOR
54-61
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
PHI
PHI
61-54
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jose Soriano
SP · #40
9-6
W-L
3.29
ERA
1.25
WHIP
127
K
123.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SFW(9-6)5.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsSTL-7.0 IP2 ER7 K
@MINL(8-6)5.0 IP3 ER0 K
Home starter
Zack Wheeler
SP · #45
10-2
W-L
2.49
ERA
0.91
WHIP
126
K
105.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@BAL-2.0 IP0 ER3 K
@MIA-3.0 IP5 ER6 K
vsLADL(10-2)7.0 IP2 ER9 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob34% / 66%
LeanHome · 16pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesTOR wins series 3-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs TOR.
PHI is 5-5 recently; TOR is 6-4.
65.5%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI5–5+1.6
- TOR6–4-0.3
Situational
- PHI2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; TOR has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5strikeouts · ±2.7
Dylan Cease · 8.5 K · last-10 8.5 vs season 8.4.
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4strikeouts · ±3.3
Jesus Luzardo · 7.4 K · last-10 7.7 vs season 6.9.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.3 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 7.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
66.2%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
65.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.1%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.1%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.47 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 111 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.7high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.5± 3.7medium
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.4± 3.3high
Hits
- Luis ArraezPHI1.5± 1.3high
- Trea TurnerPHI1.3± 1.1high
- George SpringerTOR1.2± 0.5high
Total bases
- Trea TurnerPHI2.1± 2.1high
- Bryce HarperPHI2.0± 1.6high
- George SpringerTOR2.0± 1.5high
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI0.7± 1.2high
- Bryan De La CruzPHI0.7± 1.4low
- Bryce HarperPHI0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.8± 2.6medium
- Jameson TaillonTOR3.5± 2.7medium
- Max ScherzerTOR3.4± 3.9low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
PHI
.679
OPS
.719
▶.704
.302
OBP
.318
.305
3.90
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.39
4.06
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.20
1.32
WHIP
1.30
1.31
9.0
K / 9
8.5
▶9.9
The One model★ Lock
Fri, Aug 7TOR
Blue Jays
58-90
vs65.6%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
79-68
TOR 34.4%win prob65.6% PHI
PHI 1522 · TOR 1437Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
