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FINAL+2EDM
ANA

ANA

41-28-4

24
EDM

EDM

37-28-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasEDM -148

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Anaheim Ducks, 4–2.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Cutter Gauthier

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
ANA41-28-4EDM37-28-9
ANA

ANA

41-28-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
EDM

EDM

37-28-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Playoff series

Apr 21ANAANA3@EDMEDM4
Apr 23ANAANA6@EDMEDM4
Apr 25EDMEDM4@ANAANA6
Apr 27EDMEDM3@ANAANA4
Apr 29ANAANA1@EDMEDM4
May 1EDMEDM2@ANAANA5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA+12445%
EDMEDM-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat ANA 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
ANA0022
EDM0134

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · EDM won 2

0
0

1

0
1

2

2
3

3

ANA
EDM

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    ANA 2·EDM 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 2·EDM 4

  3. 3rd·19:43

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Josh Samanski

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 4

  4. 3rd·19:43

    Zach Hyman Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (82), Connor Murphy (10)

    · ·

    ANA 2·EDM 4

  5. 3rd·19:08

    Cutter Gauthier Slap Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  6. 3rd·18:55

    John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  7. 3rd·18:50

    John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  8. 3rd·18:31

    John Carlson Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  9. 3rd·18:21

    John Carlson shot blocked by Evan Bouchard

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  10. 3rd·18:16

    Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  11. 3rd·18:16

    Icing

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  12. 3rd·18:01

    Giveaway by Mattias Ekholm

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  13. 3rd·17:59

    Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  14. 3rd·17:33

    Vasily Podkolzin hit Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  15. 3rd·17:20

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  16. 3rd·17:20

    Hand Pass

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  17. 3rd·16:45

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  18. 3rd·16:44

    Zach Hyman hit Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  19. 3rd·16:05

    Darnell Nurse hit Jeffrey Viel

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  20. 3rd·15:44

    Kasperi Kapanen hit Drew Helleson

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  21. 3rd·15:31

    Olen Zellweger shot blocked by Chris Kreider

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  22. 3rd·14:58

    Giveaway by Chris Kreider

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  23. 3rd·14:50

    Takeaway by Jackson LaCombe

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  24. 3rd·14:17

    Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by John Carlson

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  25. 3rd·14:09

    Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  26. 3rd·14:03

    Adam Henrique faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  27. 3rd·14:03

    Puck in Netting

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  28. 3rd·14:01

    Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  29. 3rd·13:50

    Jackson LaCombe hit Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

  30. 3rd·13:45

    Matt Savoie shot blocked by Drew Helleson

    ·

    ANA 2·EDM 3

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

33

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

6

35

Faceoffs W

24

15

Blocks

18

11

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

1

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +124/EDM -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(EDM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR