Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at EDM?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2EDM

ANA

41-28-4

EDM

37-28-9

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesEDM wins series 2-1VegasEDM -148

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

1Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:22
C. GauthierLW · #61	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:02
M. GranlundC · #64	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	21:15
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:20
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-3	2	4	0	0	17:49
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:52
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	1	1	1	3	2	15:24
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:20
T. TerryRW · #19	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:17
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	6:00
J. VielLW · #28	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	14:21
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	13:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	2	-1	4	1	6	0	28:07
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	12:55
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-1	3	1	1	0	25:20
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:10
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	21:17
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	15:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	33	3	30	.909	58:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	14:05
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	14:54
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	1	2	3	3	0	0	17:45
M. JonesLW · #46	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	10:06
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	-1	0	2	1	4	10:46
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:10
C. McDavidC · #97	1	2	2	6	0	0	0	22:29
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	17:52
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	1	1	3	4	2	0	16:52
J. RoslovicC · #28	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	11:20
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	11:17
M. SavoieC · #22	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	22:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	2	1	5	0	2	0	26:18
M. EkholmD · #14	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:07
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	10:29
C. MurphyD · #5	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	21:06
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	1	2	3	2	0	22:59
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13:56

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	33	2	31	.939	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 21

ANA3@

EDM4

Apr 23

ANA6@

EDM4

Apr 25

EDM4@

ANA6

Apr 27

EDM3@

ANA4

Apr 29

ANA1@

EDM4

May 1

EDM2@

ANA5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+12445%

EDM-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat ANA 4-2. C. McDavid led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	0	2	2
EDM	0	1	3	4

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · EDM won 2

ANA

EDM

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 2·EDM 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 2·EDM 4
3rd·19:43
Tim Washe faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
ANA 2·EDM 4
3rd·19:43
Zach Hyman Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (82), Connor Murphy (10)
· ·
ANA 2·EDM 4
3rd·19:08
Cutter Gauthier Slap Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:55
John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:50
John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:31
John Carlson Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:21
John Carlson shot blocked by Evan Bouchard
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:16
Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:16
Icing
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Mattias Ekholm
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·17:59
Giveaway by Beckett Sennecke
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·17:33
Vasily Podkolzin hit Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·17:20
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·17:20
Hand Pass
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·16:45
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·16:44
Zach Hyman hit Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·16:05
Darnell Nurse hit Jeffrey Viel
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·15:44
Kasperi Kapanen hit Drew Helleson
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·15:31
Olen Zellweger shot blocked by Chris Kreider
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:58
Giveaway by Chris Kreider
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:50
Takeaway by Jackson LaCombe
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:17
Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by John Carlson
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:09
Jack Roslovic Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:03
Adam Henrique faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:03
Puck in Netting
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·14:01
Evan Bouchard Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·13:50
Jackson LaCombe hit Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
ANA 2·EDM 3
3rd·13:45
Matt Savoie shot blocked by Drew Helleson
·
ANA 2·EDM 3

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +124/EDM -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Anaheim Ducks, 4–2.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Zach Hyman · EDM18:000.7153.7%61.9%18:00 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 53.7% CF · 61.9% xGF
Connor McDavid · EDM22:420.5965.1%67.0%22:42 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 65.1% CF · 67.0% xGF
Cutter Gauthier · ANA15:060.5772.1%66.0%15:06 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 72.1% CF · 66.0% xGF
Matt Savoie · EDM22:420.5449.0%61.0%22:42 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 49.0% CF · 61.0% xGF
Evan Bouchard · EDM26:300.5152.8%61.1%26:30 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 52.8% CF · 61.1% xGF
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · EDM17:540.4653.3%68.7%17:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 53.3% CF · 68.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Connor Ingram · EDM31–2.939+0.8931–2 · .939 SV% · +0.89 GSAx
Lukas Dostal · ANA30–3.909+0.8330–3 · .909 SV% · +0.83 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
53.5%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.5%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at EDM?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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