NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

33-31-7

CBJ

38-24-11

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasCBJ -185

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

SJ33-31-7

CBJ38-24-11

SJ33-31-7CBJ38-24-11

33-31-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CBJ

38-24-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Jan 7

CBJ2@

SJ5

Mar 28

SJ3@

CBJ2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+15439%

CBJ-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat CBJ 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	0	2	3
CBJ	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · CBJ won 1

CBJ

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:41
Barclay Goodrow Wrist Shot Wide Left
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:27
Adam Fantilli Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:23
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:23
Icing
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:11
Cole Sillinger hit Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:35
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:35
Igor Chernyshov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (28), Macklin Celebrini (62)
· ·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·17:47
William Eklund hit Zach Werenski
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·17:37
Sam Dickinson Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·17:30
Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·17:16
Kiefer Sherwood hit Ivan Provorov
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·16:53
Giveaway by Sam Dickinson
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·14:41
Boone Jenner Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·14:02
Takeaway by Adam Fantilli
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:48
Kiefer Sherwood hit Mason Marchment
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:24
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:24
Off-side
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:03
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·12:19
Takeaway by Collin Graf
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·11:56
Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·11:40
Giveaway by Will Smith
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·11:21
Sean Monahan hit Igor Chernyshov
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·10:33
Sam Dickinson hit Charlie Coyle
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·10:22
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·9:34
Conor Garland Backhand saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·8:27
Boone Jenner shot blocked by Nick Leddy
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·8:01
Erik Gudbranson shot blocked by Nick Leddy
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2

Team stats

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +154/CBJ -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
DIST MI299.999+
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
BURSTS30199
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
DIST MI289.198
Adam FantilliCBJ · C
DIST MI256.696
Erik GudbransonCBJ · D
SHOT MPH98.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CBJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CBJ vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 135 high confidence

Shots on goal

Zach WerenskiCBJ
3.4± 2.5high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
2.8± 1.6high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Adam FantilliCBJ
0.3± 0.5high
Boone JennerCBJ
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William EklundSJ
0.9± 1.1high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
0.8± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands