Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at CBJ?

The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

33-31-7

CBJ

38-24-11

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasCBJ -185

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

2Points

—

SOG

CBJ · top performer

Cole Sillinger

C · #4

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	19:42
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:31
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	16:12
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	9:41
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:56
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	15:21
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:09
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	8:58
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	2	6	0	0	16:52
W. SmithC · #2	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	19:14
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:48
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	16:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	19:37
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	17:23
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	20:58
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	17:37
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	20:30
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	-2	1	1	0	0	22:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	24	2	22	.917	59:31

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	18:26
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:58
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	12:41
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	-1	0	2	1	2	17:17
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:37
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:49
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	20:50
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:18
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:34
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	-1	2	4	1	0	15:40
C. SillingerC · #4	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:23
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	9:43
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	16:52
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	3	0	19:09
D. MateychukD · #5	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:57
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	25:39
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	30:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. MerzlikinsG · #90	36	3	33	.917	59:10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CBJ

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Jan 7

CBJ2@

SJ5

Mar 28

SJ3@

CBJ2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+15439%

CBJ-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 81 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat CBJ 3-2. M. Celebrini led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	0	2	3
CBJ	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · CBJ won 1

CBJ

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:41
Barclay Goodrow Wrist Shot Wide Left
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:27
Adam Fantilli Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:23
Boone Jenner faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:23
Icing
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·19:11
Cole Sillinger hit Vincent Desharnais
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:35
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·18:35
Igor Chernyshov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Will Smith (28), Macklin Celebrini (62)
· ·
SJ 3·CBJ 2
3rd·17:47
William Eklund hit Zach Werenski
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·17:37
Sam Dickinson Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·17:30
Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·17:16
Kiefer Sherwood hit Ivan Provorov
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·16:53
Giveaway by Sam Dickinson
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·14:41
Boone Jenner Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·14:02
Takeaway by Adam Fantilli
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:48
Kiefer Sherwood hit Mason Marchment
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:24
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:24
Off-side
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·13:03
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·12:19
Takeaway by Collin Graf
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·11:56
Dmitry Orlov shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·11:40
Giveaway by Will Smith
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·11:21
Sean Monahan hit Igor Chernyshov
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·10:33
Sam Dickinson hit Charlie Coyle
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·10:22
Kirill Marchenko Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·9:34
Conor Garland Backhand saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·8:27
Boone Jenner shot blocked by Nick Leddy
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2
3rd·8:01
Erik Gudbranson shot blocked by Nick Leddy
·
SJ 2·CBJ 2

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +154/CBJ -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Columbus Blue Jackets and beat them, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Collin Graf · SJS15:361.1568.8%80.4%15:36 TOI · 1.15 iXG · 68.8% CF · 80.4% xGF
#848499415:360.5555.2%62.7%15:36 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 55.2% CF · 62.7% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ20:540.4747.4%43.2%20:54 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 47.4% CF · 43.2% xGF
Macklin Celebrini · SJS19:480.4260.0%67.1%19:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 60.0% CF · 67.1% xGF
Will Smith · SJS19:240.3658.8%64.3%19:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 58.8% CF · 64.3% xGF
Michael Misa · SJS15:120.3561.8%71.6%15:12 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 61.8% CF · 71.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Elvis Merzlikins · CBJ33–3.917+1.1833–3 · .917 SV% · +1.18 GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic · SJS22–2.917+0.5122–2 · .917 SV% · +0.51 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · CBJ favored

Elo Static
63.8%
P(CBJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(CBJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(CBJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-185

Close price

-185

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at CBJ?: The model favors CBJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksColumbus Blue Jackets

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