NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

37-33-2

CAR

46-20-6

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesCAR wins series 4-0VegasCAR -205

NJ · top performer

Nico Hischier

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:19
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	19:15
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	20:01
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:26
E. DadonovLW · #33	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:36
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	12:18
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	1	0	0	2	2	13:28
N. HischierC · #13	0	1	-1	5	2	3	0	19:12
J. HughesC · #86	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	22:17
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	-1	3	3	1	0	18:05
D. MercerC · #91	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	17:49
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	15:02
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	20:46
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	23:21
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	19:18
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	18:13
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	19:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	33	4	29	.879	58:09

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:44
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:43
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:02
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	1	0	2	1	1	0	15:10
T. HallLW · #71	0	2	1	4	1	0	2	14:25
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:53
S. JarvisC · #24	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	17:56
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	16:22
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:49
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	0	2	0	3	2	17:59
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	14:44
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	20:09
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	17:42
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:09
A. NikishinD · #21	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	16:13
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	21:40
S. WalkerD · #26	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	20:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	19	2	17	.895	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 4-0

Oct 9

NJ3@

CAR6

Jan 5

CAR3@

NJ1

Jan 18

CAR4@

NJ1

Mar 28

NJ2@

CAR5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+17037%

CAR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 52 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat NJ 5-2. N. Ehlers led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	1	0	1	2
CAR	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · CAR won 2

CAR

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:57
Simon Nemec hit Eric Robinson
·
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:36
Paul Cotter faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:36
Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (5), Brenden Dillon (12)
· ·
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:20
Shayne Gostisbehere hit Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:03
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:03
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:44
Paul Cotter hit Sean Walker
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:11
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:11
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:07
Evgenii Dadonov Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:40
Cody Glass faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:40
Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (17), Sebastian Aho (48)
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:34
Sean Walker shot blocked by Luke Hughes
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·17:01
Connor Brown shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:46
Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:34
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:22
Luke Hughes shot blocked by Jordan Staal
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:20
Takeaway by Luke Hughes
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:58
Nico Hischier Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:52
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:52
On-Ice Official
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:52
Shayne Gostisbehere Charging against Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:49
Cody Glass shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:25
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:25
Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:20
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
NJ 1·CAR 3
3rd·14:37
Jonas Siegenthaler shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
NJ 1·CAR 3
3rd·14:23
Jordan Martinook Tip-In Wide Left
·
NJ 1·CAR 3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +170/CAR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off New Jersey Devils, 5–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Logan Stankoven · CAR15:060.9669.2%86.4%15:06 TOI · 0.96 iXG · 69.2% CF · 86.4% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR14:360.5875.0%86.2%14:36 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 75.0% CF · 86.2% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR18:120.5567.5%54.2%18:12 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 67.5% CF · 54.2% xGF
Nico Hischier · NJD19:180.4848.6%63.3%19:18 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 48.6% CF · 63.3% xGF
Mark Jankowski · CAR11:000.3882.4%92.3%11:00 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 82.4% CF · 92.3% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD22:420.3144.9%41.1%22:42 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 44.9% CF · 41.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Brandon Bussi · CAR17–2.895-0.1717–2 · .895 SV% · -0.17 GSAx
Jacob Markstrom · FLA29–4.879-0.3629–4 · .879 SV% · -0.36 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
64.7%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.7%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsCarolina Hurricanes

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