NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

37-33-2

CAR

46-20-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesCAR wins series 4-0VegasCAR -205

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off New Jersey Devils, 5–2.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

Evgenii Dadonov

LW · #33

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

NJ37-33-2

CAR46-20-6

NJ37-33-2CAR46-20-6

37-33-2

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CAR

46-20-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CAR wins series 4-0

Oct 9

NJ3@

CAR6

Jan 5

CAR3@

NJ1

Jan 18

CAR4@

NJ1

Mar 28

NJ2@

CAR5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+17037%

CAR-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat NJ 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	1	0	1	2
CAR	0	3	2	5

Period scoring

NJ won 1 · CAR won 2

CAR

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:57
Simon Nemec hit Eric Robinson
·
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:36
Paul Cotter faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:36
Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (5), Brenden Dillon (12)
· ·
NJ 2·CAR 5
3rd·19:20
Shayne Gostisbehere hit Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:03
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:03
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:44
Paul Cotter hit Sean Walker
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:11
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:11
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:07
Evgenii Dadonov Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:40
Cody Glass faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:40
Seth Jarvis Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Walker (17), Sebastian Aho (48)
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:34
Sean Walker shot blocked by Luke Hughes
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·17:01
Connor Brown shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:46
Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:34
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:22
Luke Hughes shot blocked by Jordan Staal
· ·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·16:20
Takeaway by Luke Hughes
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:58
Nico Hischier Tip-In saved by Brandon Bussi
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:52
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:52
On-Ice Official
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:52
Shayne Gostisbehere Charging against Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:49
Cody Glass shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:25
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:25
Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none
NJ 1·CAR 4
3rd·15:20
Giveaway by Simon Nemec
NJ 1·CAR 3
3rd·14:37
Jonas Siegenthaler shot blocked by Jordan Staal
·
NJ 1·CAR 3
3rd·14:23
Jordan Martinook Tip-In Wide Left
·
NJ 1·CAR 3

Team stats

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ +170/CAR -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Sean WalkerCAR · D
SKATE MPH22.998
Taylor HallCAR · LW
BURSTS4696
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
DIST MI44.795
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · LW
BURSTS3995
Seth JarvisCAR · C
DIST MI39.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CAR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.