Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TB

OTT

38-25-10

45-21-6

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -135

OTT · top performer

Jordan Spence

D · #10

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	15:19
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	-1	2	3	1	2	18:51
N. CousinsC · #21	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	11:05
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	15:03
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	9:49
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	10:47
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	-2	2	0	2	0	14:53
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:13
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	17:03
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	-2	3	4	0	0	21:41
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	0	3	2	1	2	16:55
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	11:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. KlevenD · #43	0	1	-1	1	3	4	0	27:04
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	16:41
J. SpenceD · #10	1	0	0	4	1	2	0	22:41
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	11:24
C. YakemchukD · #58	0	0	-2	0	0	0	2	13:58
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	-1	1	0	3	0	24:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ReimerG · #47	27	4	23	.852	58:18

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:11
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	2	0	2	2	2	19:31
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	1	0	2	1	2	0	15:54
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	20:06
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	18:44
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	0	0	3	4	1	0	19:25
B. HagelLW · #38	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	22:17
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:05
C. PerryRW · #10	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	14:35
B. PointC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:44
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5:50

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	14:17
C. D'AstousD · #51	1	1	4	1	2	2	0	17:29
E. LillebergD · #78	1	2	4	1	1	1	2	14:58
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:45
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	21:48
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	25:32
S. SantiniD · #16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:49

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	28	2	26	.929	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 9

OTT5@

TB4

Mar 28

OTT2@

TB4today

Apr 7

TB2@

OTT6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTT+11447%

TB-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat OTT 4-2. B. Hagel led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
OTT	2	0	0	2
TB	0	2	2	4

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · TB won 2

OTT

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:59
Ridly Greig Backhand Wide Left
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:57
Michael Amadio shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:55
Michael Amadio Snap Shot Short
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:53
Jordan Spence shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:51
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:51
Icing
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:46
Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot Wide Right
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:44
Shane Pinto shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:17
Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:00
Dylan Cozens hit Pontus Holmberg
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·19:00
Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot Wide Right
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·18:24
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·18:24
Icing
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·18:14
Brandon Hagel faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·18:14
Goalie Stopped
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·18:12
Jordan Spence Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·17:51
Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·17:48
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·17:48
Jake Guentzel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (19), Emil Lilleberg (6)
· ·
OTT 2·TB 4
3rd·16:42
Zemgus Girgensons Snap Shot saved by James Reimer
·
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·16:32
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·16:32
Puck in Crowd
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·16:05
Takeaway by Claude Giroux
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·15:58
Claude Giroux Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·14:29
Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot Wide Left
·
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·14:28
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·14:24
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
OTT 2·TB 3
3rd·14:24
Puck in Netting
OTT 2·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +114/TB -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Ottawa Senators, 4–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brandon Hagel · TBL22:360.7960.7%47.8%22:36 TOI · 0.79 iXG · 60.7% CF · 47.8% xGF
Drake Batherson · OTT19:060.7340.8%49.8%19:06 TOI · 0.73 iXG · 40.8% CF · 49.8% xGF
Corey Perry · TBL14:420.4765.0%60.7%14:42 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 65.0% CF · 60.7% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA17:000.4644.2%48.1%17:00 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 44.2% CF · 48.1% xGF
Darren Raddysh · TOR25:420.3866.7%61.2%25:42 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 66.7% CF · 61.2% xGF
Nick Cousins · OTT11:060.3432.0%35.4%11:06 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 32.0% CF · 35.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL26–2.929+1.1626–2 · .929 SV% · +1.16 GSAx
James Reimer · OTT23–4.852-1.4423–4 · .852 SV% · -1.44 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.1%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
62.1%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.1%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.1%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in OTT at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Ottawa SenatorsTampa Bay Lightning

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