Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+2TB
OTT

OTT

38-25-10

24
TB

TB

45-21-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -135

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Ottawa Senators, 4–2.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

OTT · top performer

OTT
Nick Cousins

Nick Cousins

C · #21

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Hagel

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
OTT38-25-10TB45-21-6
OTT

OTT

38-25-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

45-21-6

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 9OTTOTT5@TBTB4
Mar 28OTTOTT2@TBTB4today
Apr 7TBTB2@OTTOTT6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

OTTOTT+11447%
TBTB-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat OTT 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
OTT2002
TB0224

Period scoring

OTT won 1 · TB won 2

2
0

1

0
2

2

0
2

3

OTT
TB

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    OTT 2·TB 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    OTT 2·TB 4

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Ridly Greig Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  4. 3rd·19:57

    Michael Amadio shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  5. 3rd·19:55

    Michael Amadio Snap Shot Short

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  6. 3rd·19:53

    Jordan Spence shot blocked by J.J. Moser

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  7. 3rd·19:51

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  8. 3rd·19:51

    Icing

    OTT 2·TB 4

  9. 3rd·19:46

    Brandon Hagel Wrist Shot Wide Right

    OTT 2·TB 4

  10. 3rd·19:44

    Shane Pinto shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  11. 3rd·19:17

    Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons

    OTT 2·TB 4

  12. 3rd·19:00

    Dylan Cozens hit Pontus Holmberg

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  13. 3rd·19:00

    Pontus Holmberg Wrist Shot Wide Right

    OTT 2·TB 4

  14. 3rd·18:24

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  15. 3rd·18:24

    Icing

    OTT 2·TB 4

  16. 3rd·18:14

    Brandon Hagel faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  17. 3rd·18:14

    Goalie Stopped

    OTT 2·TB 4

  18. 3rd·18:12

    Jordan Spence Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  19. 3rd·17:51

    Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  20. 3rd·17:48

    Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  21. 3rd·17:48

    Jake Guentzel Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Corey Perry (19), Emil Lilleberg (6)

    · ·

    OTT 2·TB 4

  22. 3rd·16:42

    Zemgus Girgensons Snap Shot saved by James Reimer

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 3

  23. 3rd·16:32

    Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 3

  24. 3rd·16:32

    Puck in Crowd

    OTT 2·TB 3

  25. 3rd·16:05

    Takeaway by Claude Giroux

    OTT 2·TB 3

  26. 3rd·15:58

    Claude Giroux Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 3

  27. 3rd·14:29

    Brady Tkachuk Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 3

  28. 3rd·14:28

    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    OTT 2·TB 3

  29. 3rd·14:24

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    OTT 2·TB 3

  30. 3rd·14:24

    Puck in Netting

    OTT 2·TB 3

Team stats

OTT

Away

Stat

TB

Home

28

Shots

27

0.0

PCT

0.0

10

PIM

6

35

Faceoffs W

29

24

Blocks

12

18

Giveaways

15

7

Takeaways

1

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·OTT +114/TB -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Warren FoegeleOTT · LW
    SKATE MPH22.786
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784
  • Claude GirouxOTT · RW
    SHOT MPH87.082
  • Lars EllerOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.581

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR