Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CGY

VAN

21-43-8

CGY

31-34-8

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesCGY wins series 2-1VegasCGY -162

VAN · top performer

Liam Ohgren

LW · #92

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-2	4	2	0	0	14:44
B. BoeserRW · #6	0	1	-1	4	0	0	0	22:34
J. DeBruskLW · #74	1	0	-2	3	1	0	0	13:24
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	6:30
N. HoglanderLW · #21	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:42
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	-2	4	3	0	2	13:19
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	18:05
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	17:09
L. OhgrenLW · #92	1	0	-1	4	0	1	0	17:51
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	2	0	3	1	1	0	19:17
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:50
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-1	0	4	0	2	18:27

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	23:57
F. HronekD · #17	0	0	-3	1	2	2	0	26:13
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	15:02
V. ManciniD · #90	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	16:00
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-2	0	1	2	2	17:57
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	2	5	2	0	18:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	11	4	7	.636	24:36
K. LankinenG · #32	12	3	9	.750	32:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:41
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	19:29
M. CoronatoRW · #27	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	15:42
J. FarabeeLW · #86	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:36
M. FrostC · #16	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	14:05
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	2	1	0	2	0	16:51
T. GrossC · #39	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	11:35
A. KlapkaRW · #43	1	0	-1	3	1	0	5	8:51
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	13:43
B. OthmannLW · #78	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	10:12
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	14:51
R. StromeC · #22	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	14:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	22:12
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	2	2	0	2	0	0	18:25
O. MaattaD · #3	1	1	2	2	0	2	0	20:55
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	14:57
Z. ParekhD · #19	1	1	0	2	1	1	2	16:29
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	24:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	34	3	31	.912	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VAN

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY wins series 2-1

Oct 10

CGY1@

VAN5

Nov 24

CGY5@

VAN2

Mar 29

VAN3@

CGY7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VAN+13642%

CGY-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 79 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat VAN 7-3. M. Coronato led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VAN	1	1	1	3
CGY	2	4	1	7

Period scoring

VAN won 0 · CGY won 2

VAN

CGY

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VAN 3·CGY 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VAN 3·CGY 7
3rd·19:58
Pierre-Olivier Joseph hit Adam Klapka
·
VAN 3·CGY 7
3rd·19:52
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Tyson Gross
·
VAN 3·CGY 7
3rd·19:52
Adam Klapka Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brennan Othmann (1), Hunter Brzustewicz (4)
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 7
3rd·19:06
Marcus Pettersson hit Olli Maatta
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·18:58
Zach Whitecloud hit Liam Ohgren
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·18:31
Takeaway by Victor Mancini
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·18:23
Yegor Sharangovich faceoff won against Teddy Blueger
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·18:23
Marco Rossi Hooking against Yegor Sharangovich
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·17:40
Brock Boeser Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·17:28
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·17:28
Puck in Netting
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·17:26
Elias Pettersson Slap Shot Wide Left
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·17:07
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·17:07
Kevin Bahl Delaying Game - Puck over glass
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·16:58
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·16:58
Puck in Crowd
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·16:01
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·16:01
Icing
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:54
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:54
Icing
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:44
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:44
Puck in Crowd
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:36
Takeaway by Marco Rossi
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:32
Giveaway by Marco Rossi
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:18
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·15:18
Icing
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·14:29
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
VAN 3·CGY 6
3rd·14:29
Puck in Netting
VAN 3·CGY 6

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 6.5·VAN +136/CGY -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Vancouver Canucks, 7–3.

CGY -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.4%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
66.4%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.4%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.4%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VAN at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vancouver CanucksCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL