NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NYI

FLA

35-34-3

NYI

42-27-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-1VegasNYI -205

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Florida Panthers, 5–2.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Brayden Schenn

C · #10

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

FLA35-34-3

NYI42-27-5

FLA35-34-3NYI42-27-5

FLA

35-34-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

42-27-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI win series 2-1

Dec 7

NYI1@

FLA4

Mar 1

FLA4@

NYI5

Mar 28

FLA2@

NYI5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+17037%

NYI-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat FLA 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	0	0	2
NYI	0	5	0	5

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · NYI won 1

FLA

NYI

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:56
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Right
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:55
Giveaway by Mackie Samoskevich
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:43
Carter Verhaeghe Tip-In Wide Right
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:36
Matthew Tkachuk Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:32
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:32
Icing
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:00
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:00
Icing
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:56
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot Wide Right
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:53
Mackie Samoskevich Slap Shot Short
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:43
Carson Soucy hit Vinnie Hinostroza
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:30
Mike Benning shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:24
Jesper Boqvist Wrist Shot Wide Left
· ·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:23
Noah Gregor Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:01
Mike Benning shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:34
Giveaway by Aaron Ekblad
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:06
Seth Jones Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:04
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Matthew Tkachuk
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:01
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:56
Aaron Ekblad Slap Shot Off Crossbar
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:31
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:31
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:29
Aaron Ekblad Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:54
Seth Jones shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:31
Jean-Gabriel Pageau Wrist Shot Wide Left
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:20
Mackie Samoskevich Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
FLA 2·NYI 5

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA +170/NYI -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

NYI vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichFLA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands