Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NYI?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NYI

FLA

35-34-3

NYI

42-27-5

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-1VegasNYI -205

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Brayden Schenn

C · #10

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	14:50
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	10:56
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	12:49
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:29
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	11:27
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:06
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	13:47
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:12
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	-2	1	2	1	0	16:51
J. StudnickaC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:32
M. TkachukLW · #19	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	23:43
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	21:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	14:30
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	24:07
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	0	3	1	3	2	21:25
S. JonesD · #3	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	25:21
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	20:18
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-3	0	3	0	2	14:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	40	5	35	.875	54:45

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:52
C. CizikasC · #53	1	0	2	4	2	1	0	10:50
M. GatcombC · #16	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	9:44
E. HeinemanLW · #51	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	17:56
S. HolmstromRW · #92	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	15:33
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	20:18
A. LeeLW · #27	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	18:17
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:47
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:25
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:47
C. RitchieC · #64	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:43
B. SchennC · #10	1	2	1	5	2	3	0	19:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	12:07
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	11:54
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	2	4	1	1	0	22:04
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	-1	4	0	4	0	21:15
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	2	3	5	1	1	0	27:51
C. SoucyD · #4	0	1	2	1	1	1	2	20:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	21	2	19	.905	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 2-1

Dec 7

NYI1@

FLA4

Mar 1

FLA4@

NYI5

Mar 28

FLA2@

NYI5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA+17037%

NYI-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 82 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat FLA 5-2. B. Schenn led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	0	0	2
NYI	0	5	0	5

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · NYI won 1

FLA

NYI

Play-by-play · 313 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:56
Mathew Barzal Snap Shot Wide Right
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:55
Giveaway by Mackie Samoskevich
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:43
Carter Verhaeghe Tip-In Wide Right
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:36
Matthew Tkachuk Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:32
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:32
Icing
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:00
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·19:00
Icing
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:56
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot Wide Right
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:53
Mackie Samoskevich Slap Shot Short
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:49
Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:43
Carson Soucy hit Vinnie Hinostroza
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:30
Mike Benning shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:24
Jesper Boqvist Wrist Shot Wide Left
· ·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:23
Noah Gregor Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:22
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Adam Pelech
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·18:01
Mike Benning shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:34
Giveaway by Aaron Ekblad
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:06
Seth Jones Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:04
Jean-Gabriel Pageau hit Matthew Tkachuk
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·17:01
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:56
Aaron Ekblad Slap Shot Off Crossbar
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:31
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:31
Goalie Stopped
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·16:29
Aaron Ekblad Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:54
Seth Jones shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:31
Jean-Gabriel Pageau Wrist Shot Wide Left
FLA 2·NYI 5
3rd·15:20
Mackie Samoskevich Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
FLA 2·NYI 5

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA +170/NYI -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Florida Panthers, 5–2.

NYI -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brayden Schenn · NYI19:300.6860.0%71.0%19:30 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 60.0% CF · 71.0% xGF
Casey Cizikas · NYI10:480.6648.0%63.8%10:48 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 48.0% CF · 63.8% xGF
Matthew Schaefer · NYI31:420.5845.7%45.0%31:42 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 45.7% CF · 45.0% xGF
Eetu Luostarinen · FLA23:000.5449.0%42.0%23:00 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 49.0% CF · 42.0% xGF
Mathew Barzal · NYI21:000.5360.5%59.6%21:00 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 60.5% CF · 59.6% xGF
#847939313:060.4755.2%46.1%13:06 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 55.2% CF · 46.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI19–2.905+0.2119–2 · .905 SV% · +0.21 GSAx
Daniil Tarasov · FLA35–5.875-0.5535–5 · .875 SV% · -0.55 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.8%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
61.8%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.8%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.8%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NYI?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL