Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

PHI

36-24-12

DET

39-26-8

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasDET -130

PHI · top performer

Owen Tippett

RW · #74

4Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:44
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:08
N. CatesLW · #27	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:59
S. CouturierC · #14	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:35
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:46
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	13:43
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	11:22
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	11:09
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	2	-1	2	2	2	0	17:00
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	-1	1	1	0	2	12:58
O. TippettRW · #74	3	1	2	7	1	0	0	16:38
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	18:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	14:14
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	2	0	2	0	0	2	19:37
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	23:27
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	26:00
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:43
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	35	3	32	.914	59:46

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	1	0	1	1	4	0	2	10:24
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	16:33
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:07
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	0	0	8	0	1	0	22:36
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	13:11
P. KaneRW · #88	0	2	0	3	1	0	0	20:40
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	13:51
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	18:42
C. MazurLW · #34	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	10:32
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	9:21
L. RaymondLW · #23	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:53
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:16
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	18:30
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	20:29
J. FaulkD · #72	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:29
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	13:52
M. SeiderD · #53	0	2	0	5	1	1	0	28:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	21	4	17	.810	47:19
C. TalbotG · #39	4	0	4	1.000	9:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Mar 29

PHI5@

DET3today

Apr 2

DET4@

PHI2

Apr 9

PHI3@

DET6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+11048%

DET-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat DET 5-3. O. Tippett led the way — 3 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	1	2	2	5
DET	0	0	3	3

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · DET won 1

PHI

DET

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·19:53
Giveaway by Moritz Seider
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·19:30
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·19:30
Icing
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·19:08
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Andrew Copp
·
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·19:08
Icing
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·18:58
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·18:53
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·18:53
Icing
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·18:25
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Right
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·17:56
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·17:56
Sean Couturier Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (21)
·
PHI 5·DET 3
3rd·17:43
Dylan Larkin Tip-In saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·17:31
Alex DeBrincat Slap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·17:26
Sean Couturier hit Lucas Raymond
·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·17:01
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·16:27
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·16:27
Icing
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·16:14
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·16:14
Lucas Raymond Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (44), Patrick Kane (33)
· ·
PHI 4·DET 3
3rd·15:51
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:48
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:36
Dylan Larkin Snap Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:24
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:24
Icing
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:10
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Trevor Zegras
·
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:10
Alex DeBrincat Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (32), Moritz Seider (43)
· ·
PHI 4·DET 2
3rd·15:04
Moritz Seider shot blocked by Travis Konecny
·
PHI 4·DET 1
3rd·14:46
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
PHI 4·DET 1

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +110/DET -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–3.

PHI +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
59.6%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Philadelphia FlyersDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL