Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at COL?

The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2WPG

WPG

31-30-12

COL

48-14-10

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -270

WPG · top performer

Gabriel Vilardi

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

COL · top performer

Parker Kelly

C · #17

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:23
P. FordC · #25	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	9:00
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	18:25
C. KoepkeLW · #45	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	12:29
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:11
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	2	1	4	0	0	16:55
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	0	2	1	1	1	2	19:15
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	5:32
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	1	0	2	0	3	4	23:51
J. ToewsC · #19	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	14:01
G. VilardiC · #13	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	20:05
D. ZhilkinC · #53	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrysonD · #78	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	9:26
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	21:54
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	22:25
N. PionkD · #4	0	0	1	2	6	2	0	25:04
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	13:51
D. SambergD · #54	0	1	2	0	2	4	2	24:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	23	2	21	.913	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	9:35
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:07
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	-1	0	1	2	0	14:28
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	1	4	0	0	2	10:34
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:35
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	0	-3	2	1	2	0	14:47
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	15:03
N. MacKinnonC · #29	0	0	-2	3	1	1	0	22:36
M. NecasC · #88	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	23:50
B. NelsonC · #11	1	0	-2	3	0	2	0	20:19
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	16:01
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	12:09

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	15:00
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	20:23
C. MakarD · #8	0	1	-3	3	0	2	0	26:37
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	19:26
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	0	1	4	0	2	14:31
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	21:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	20	3	17	.850	57:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

COL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 20

WPG2@

COL3

Mar 14

COL1@

WPG3

Mar 27

COL3@

WPG2

Mar 28

WPG4@

COL2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+22031%

COL-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 49 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat COL 4-2. G. Vilardi led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	1	1	2	4
COL	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · COL won 0

WPG

COL

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·19:47
Martin Necas shot blocked by Cole Koepke
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·19:28
Cole Koepke Wrist Shot Wide Left
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·19:26
Brock Nelson faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·19:26
Timeout - Home
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·19:26
Mark Scheifele Hooking against Cale Makar
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·18:59
Gabriel Landeskog Tip-In Wide Right
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·18:43
Martin Necas hit Gabriel Vilardi
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·18:17
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·18:17
On-Ice Official
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·18:09
Giveaway by Martin Necas
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·17:51
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·17:51
Kyle Connor Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (55), Dylan Samberg (13)
· ·
WPG 4·COL 2
3rd·17:41
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·17:41
Goalie Stopped
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·17:38
Cale Makar shot blocked by Gabriel Landeskog
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·17:30
Neal Pionk hit Sam Malinski
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·16:59
Cole Koepke hit Sam Malinski
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·16:49
Brad Lambert Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·16:36
Alex Iafallo hit Logan O'Connor
· ·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Jonathan Toews
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·16:31
Josh Manson hit Jonathan Toews
· ·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·15:53
Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Cale Makar
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·15:19
Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·15:08
Giveaway by Cale Makar
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·14:49
Jack Drury faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·14:49
Delaying Game - Unsucc. chlg served by Ross Colton
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·14:49
Challenge Hm - goal interference - goal
WPG 3·COL 2
3rd·14:49
Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Bryson (5), Gabriel Vilardi (34)
· ·
WPG 3·COL 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +220/COL -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Kyle Connor · WPG22:240.4344.7%52.6%22:24 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 44.7% CF · 52.6% xGF
Gabriel Landeskog · COL15:000.4145.5%45.8%15:00 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 45.5% CF · 45.8% xGF
Cole Koepke · WPG12:420.3260.0%89.5%12:42 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 60.0% CF · 89.5% xGF
Gabriel Vilardi · WPG20:120.3155.6%51.8%20:12 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 55.6% CF · 51.8% xGF
Nathan MacKinnon · COL22:420.3052.1%47.8%22:42 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 52.1% CF · 47.8% xGF
Alex Iafallo · WPG18:180.2736.8%50.1%18:18 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 36.8% CF · 50.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Connor Hellebuyck · WPG21–2.913-0.1421–2 · .913 SV% · -0.14 GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood · COL17–3.850-1.0617–3 · .850 SV% · -1.06 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

72.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
72.2%
P(COL win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
72.2%
P(COL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
72.2%
P(COL win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-270

Close price

-270

Open no-vig

70.0%

Close no-vig

70.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at COL?: The model favors COL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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