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FINAL+2WPG
WPG

WPG

31-30-12

42
COL

COL

48-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCOL -270

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into Colorado Avalanche and beat them, 4–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WPG · top performer

WPG
Gabriel Vilardi

Gabriel Vilardi

C · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

COL · top performer

COL
Nazem Kadri

Nazem Kadri

C · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
WPG31-30-12COL48-14-10
WPG

WPG

31-30-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
COL

COL

48-14-10

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 20WPGWPG2@COLCOL3
Mar 14COLCOL1@WPGWPG3
Mar 27COLCOL3@WPGWPG2
Mar 28WPGWPG4@COLCOL2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPGWPG+22031%
COLCOL-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat COL 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WPG1124
COL1102

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · COL won 0

1
1

1

1
1

2

2
0

3

WPG
COL

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WPG 4·COL 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WPG 4·COL 2

  3. 3rd·19:47

    Martin Necas shot blocked by Cole Koepke

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  4. 3rd·19:28

    Cole Koepke Wrist Shot Wide Left

    WPG 4·COL 2

  5. 3rd·19:26

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  6. 3rd·19:26

    Timeout - Home

    WPG 4·COL 2

  7. 3rd·19:26

    Mark Scheifele Hooking against Cale Makar

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  8. 3rd·18:59

    Gabriel Landeskog Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  9. 3rd·18:43

    Martin Necas hit Gabriel Vilardi

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  10. 3rd·18:17

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  11. 3rd·18:17

    On-Ice Official

    WPG 4·COL 2

  12. 3rd·18:09

    Giveaway by Martin Necas

    WPG 4·COL 2

  13. 3rd·17:51

    Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  14. 3rd·17:51

    Kyle Connor Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (55), Dylan Samberg (13)

    · ·

    WPG 4·COL 2

  15. 3rd·17:41

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Nathan MacKinnon

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  16. 3rd·17:41

    Goalie Stopped

    WPG 3·COL 2

  17. 3rd·17:38

    Cale Makar shot blocked by Gabriel Landeskog

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  18. 3rd·17:30

    Neal Pionk hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  19. 3rd·16:59

    Cole Koepke hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  20. 3rd·16:49

    Brad Lambert Snap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  21. 3rd·16:36

    Alex Iafallo hit Logan O'Connor

    · ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  22. 3rd·16:32

    Giveaway by Jonathan Toews

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  23. 3rd·16:31

    Josh Manson hit Jonathan Toews

    · ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  24. 3rd·15:53

    Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Cale Makar

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  25. 3rd·15:19

    Josh Morrissey Slap Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  26. 3rd·15:08

    Giveaway by Cale Makar

    WPG 3·COL 2

  27. 3rd·14:49

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Mark Scheifele

    ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

  28. 3rd·14:49

    Delaying Game - Unsucc. chlg served by Ross Colton

    WPG 3·COL 2

  29. 3rd·14:49

    Challenge Hm - goal interference - goal

    WPG 3·COL 2

  30. 3rd·14:49

    Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Bryson (5), Gabriel Vilardi (34)

    · ·

    WPG 3·COL 2

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

COL

Home

21

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

50.0

8

PIM

8

29

Faceoffs W

29

18

Blocks

16

13

Giveaways

14

7

Takeaways

5

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +220/COL -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · COL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-270

Close price

-270

Open no-vig

70.0%

Close no-vig

70.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR