Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

DAL

44-18-11

PIT

36-21-16

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-0VegasDAL -130

DAL · top performer

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

3Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Erik Karlsson

D · #65

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	12:27
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4:02
J. BennLW · #14	0	2	1	1	2	0	2	12:08
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	1	0	3	2	2	2	15:36
M. BourqueC · #22	2	1	3	2	0	1	0	19:02
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	12:23
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	17:33
J. HryckowianC · #49	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	15:55
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	12:14
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:01
M. RantanenRW · #96	1	1	-1	3	0	0	0	18:57
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	1	1	5	0	1	0	21:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	1	0	3	2	1	1	0	14:12
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	20:44
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	2	0	4	0	25:38
E. LindellD · #23	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	22:20
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	14:47
T. MyersD · #57	0	1	2	0	3	3	0	16:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	12	3	9	.750	59:23

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	13:09
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	12:02
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:36
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:35
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	13:57
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:36
A. ManthaRW · #39	1	0	-3	1	1	1	2	17:17
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	10:41
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:14
R. RakellRW · #67	0	1	-3	1	1	1	0	21:45
B. RustRW · #17	0	0	-3	2	0	2	0	21:33
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	1	2	0	3	0	2	8:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	16:42
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:49
E. KarlssonD · #65	1	2	-1	1	1	1	0	24:47
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	21:50
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	16:02
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	17:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	24	4	20	.833	58:32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 2-0

Dec 7

PIT2@

DAL3

Mar 28

DAL6@

PIT3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-13057%

PIT+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat PIT 6-3. M. Bourque led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	4	2	6
PIT	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · PIT won 1

DAL

PIT

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:26
Ville Koivunen shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:24
Connor Clifton shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by Tyler Myers
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:00
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:00
Icing
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·18:50
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·18:50
Mavrik Bourque Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (19), Esa Lindell (23)
· ·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·18:01
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·18:01
Icing
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:55
Justin Brazeau hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:55
Esa Lindell Wrist Shot Wide Left
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:14
Arttu Hyry Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·16:52
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·16:52
Mavrik Bourque Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (9)
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·16:47
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·16:17
Takeaway by Wyatt Johnston
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:46
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:44
Connor Dewar faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:44
Goalie Stopped
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:42
Colin Blackwell Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:10
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:00
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:58
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:36
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:29
Giveaway by Elmer Soderblom
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:27
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:25
Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
DAL 4·PIT 3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -130/PIT +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 6–3.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jason Robertson · DAL21:060.6473.5%72.9%21:06 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 73.5% CF · 72.9% xGF
Matt Duchene · DAL17:480.5871.4%73.2%17:48 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 71.4% CF · 73.2% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT18:480.4863.6%61.0%18:48 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 63.6% CF · 61.0% xGF
Bryan Rust · PIT21:420.4660.0%57.7%21:42 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 60.0% CF · 57.7% xGF
Mikko Rantanen · DAL19:240.3051.4%67.0%19:24 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 51.4% CF · 67.0% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT21:420.2557.8%47.5%21:42 TOI · 0.25 iXG · 57.8% CF · 47.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Stuart Skinner · PIT20–4.833-1.7320–4 · .833 SV% · -1.73 GSAx
Jake Oettinger · DAL9–3.750-1.809–3 · .750 SV% · -1.80 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
51.8%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.8%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.8%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsPittsburgh Penguins

Elsewhere in the NHL