NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

DAL

44-18-11

PIT

36-21-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-0VegasDAL -130

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Pittsburgh Penguins and beat them, 6–3.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Mavrik Bourque

C · #22

3Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Noel Acciari

C · #55

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

DAL44-18-11

PIT36-21-16

DAL44-18-11PIT36-21-16

DAL

44-18-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

PIT

36-21-16

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DAL wins series 2-0

Dec 7

PIT2@

DAL3

Mar 28

DAL6@

PIT3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-13057%

PIT+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat PIT 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	4	2	6
PIT	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · PIT won 1

DAL

PIT

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:26
Ville Koivunen shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:24
Connor Clifton shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by Tyler Myers
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:00
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·19:00
Icing
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·18:50
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·18:50
Mavrik Bourque Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (19), Esa Lindell (23)
· ·
DAL 6·PIT 3
3rd·18:01
Justin Hryckowian faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·18:01
Icing
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:55
Justin Brazeau hit Esa Lindell
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:55
Esa Lindell Wrist Shot Wide Left
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:14
Arttu Hyry Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·16:52
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Rickard Rakell
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·16:52
Mavrik Bourque Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (9)
·
DAL 5·PIT 3
3rd·16:47
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·16:17
Takeaway by Wyatt Johnston
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:46
Giveaway by Parker Wotherspoon
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:44
Connor Dewar faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:44
Goalie Stopped
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:42
Colin Blackwell Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:10
Jason Robertson Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·15:00
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:58
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:36
Miro Heiskanen Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:29
Giveaway by Elmer Soderblom
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:27
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
DAL 4·PIT 3
3rd·14:25
Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
DAL 4·PIT 3

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -130/PIT +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Samuel GirardPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.590
Ben KindelPIT · C
SHOT MPH87.584
Kris LetangPIT · D
SHOT MPH91.775

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

PIT vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Mikko RantanenDAL
1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands