Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+3MTL
MTL

MTL

41-21-10

41
NSH

NSH

34-30-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-0VegasMTL -115

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 4–1.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Ivan Demidov

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Zachary L'Heureux

Zachary L'Heureux

LW · #68

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
1
MTL41-21-10NSH34-30-9
MTL

MTL

41-21-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

34-30-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

16

Season series

MTL wins series 2-0

Oct 16NSHNSH2@MTLMTL3
Mar 28MTLMTL4@NSHNSH1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-11553%
NSHNSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NSH 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL1304
NSH0011

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · NSH won 1

1
0

1

3
0

2

0
1

3

MTL
NSH

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  3. 3rd·19:50

    Zachary Bolduc Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  4. 3rd·19:31

    Giveaway by Tyson Jost

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  5. 3rd·18:38

    Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  6. 3rd·18:05

    Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  7. 3rd·18:05

    Zachary L'Heureux Misconduct

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  8. 3rd·18:05

    Zachary L'Heureux Roughing against Noah Dobson served by Luke Evangelista

    · ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  9. 3rd·17:53

    Giveaway by Nick Perbix

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  10. 3rd·17:40

    Zachary L'Heureux hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  11. 3rd·17:21

    Takeaway by Zachary Bolduc

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  12. 3rd·17:15

    Reid Schaefer Tip-In Short

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  13. 3rd·16:42

    Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  14. 3rd·16:42

    Off-side

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  15. 3rd·16:26

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  16. 3rd·16:26

    Zachary L'Heureux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Ufko (4), Matthew Wood (11)

    · ·

    MTL 4·NSH 1

  17. 3rd·15:14

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Alex Newhook

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  18. 3rd·15:14

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  19. 3rd·15:12

    Filip Forsberg Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  20. 3rd·14:48

    Joe Veleno Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  21. 3rd·14:40

    Filip Forsberg Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  22. 3rd·14:24

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  23. 3rd·14:24

    TV Timeout

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  24. 3rd·14:24

    Jake Evans Slashing against Zachary L'Heureux

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  25. 3rd·14:17

    Giveaway by Fedor Svechkov

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  26. 3rd·14:11

    Zachary Bolduc hit Brady Skjei

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  27. 3rd·14:06

    Zachary L'Heureux hit Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  28. 3rd·13:52

    Jonathan Marchessault Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  29. 3rd·13:42

    Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 4·NSH 0

  30. 3rd·13:42

    Hand Pass

    MTL 4·NSH 0

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

32

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

16

29

Faceoffs W

29

16

Blocks

7

20

Giveaways

18

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -115/NSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR