Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

MTL

41-21-10

NSH

34-30-9

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesMTL wins series 2-0VegasMTL -115

MTL · top performer

Oliver Kapanen

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Zachary L'Heureux

LW · #68

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4:53
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	14:47
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:28
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	16:18
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	16:11
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	0	4	12:59
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	13:15
O. KapanenC · #91	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	16:05
A. NewhookC · #15	1	1	3	3	1	1	0	15:11
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:45
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	18:53
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	13:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	19:15
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	21:34
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	3	1	0	1	2	17:23
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	2	3	0	2	0	21:19
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	0	5	1	0	20:47
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	-2	4	0	0	2	19:26
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	18:24
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	0	1	9	0	0	16:23
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	19:11
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	1	0	0	2	5	0	12	13:45
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:07
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:41
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	12:09
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:35
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	14:16
M. WoodRW · #71	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	14:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	14:10
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	20:00
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	23:30
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	12:00
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	20:02
R. UfkoD · #85	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	10:15
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	32	4	28	.875	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

MTL wins series 2-0

Oct 16

NSH2@

MTL3

Mar 28

MTL4@

NSH1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-11553%

NSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 67 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NSH 4-1. O. Kapanen led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	3	0	4
NSH	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · NSH won 1

MTL

NSH

Play-by-play · 331 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·19:50
Zachary Bolduc Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·19:31
Giveaway by Tyson Jost
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·18:38
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·18:05
Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·18:05
Zachary L'Heureux Misconduct
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·18:05
Zachary L'Heureux Roughing against Noah Dobson served by Luke Evangelista
· ·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·17:53
Giveaway by Nick Perbix
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·17:40
Zachary L'Heureux hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·17:21
Takeaway by Zachary Bolduc
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·17:15
Reid Schaefer Tip-In Short
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·16:42
Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·16:42
Off-side
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·16:26
Jake Evans faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov
·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·16:26
Zachary L'Heureux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Ufko (4), Matthew Wood (11)
· ·
MTL 4·NSH 1
3rd·15:14
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·15:14
Goalie Stopped
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·15:12
Filip Forsberg Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:48
Joe Veleno Snap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:40
Filip Forsberg Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:24
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:24
TV Timeout
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:24
Jake Evans Slashing against Zachary L'Heureux
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:17
Giveaway by Fedor Svechkov
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:11
Zachary Bolduc hit Brady Skjei
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·14:06
Zachary L'Heureux hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·13:52
Jonathan Marchessault Backhand Wide Left
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·13:42
Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 4·NSH 0
3rd·13:42
Hand Pass
MTL 4·NSH 0

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -115/NSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 4–1.

MTL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Caufield · MTL16:360.5959.4%71.0%16:36 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 59.4% CF · 71.0% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL16:480.5556.3%61.6%16:48 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 56.3% CF · 61.6% xGF
Erik Haula · NSH16:420.5266.7%61.3%16:42 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 66.7% CF · 61.3% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL16:180.4856.7%59.8%16:18 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 56.7% CF · 59.8% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL18:540.4551.4%60.0%18:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 51.4% CF · 60.0% xGF
Joe Veleno · MTL13:480.4550.0%69.7%13:48 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 50.0% CF · 69.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Fowler · MTL23–1.958+0.8823–1 · .958 SV% · +0.88 GSAx
Juuse Saros · NSH28–4.875-0.6928–4 · .875 SV% · -0.69 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.3%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
51.3%
P(NSH win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.3%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.3%
P(NSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensNashville Predators

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