Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3BOS

MIN

41-21-12

BOS

41-24-8

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -115

MIN · top performer

Mats Zuccarello

RW · #36

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Pavel Zacha

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	-1	5	0	1	0	20:28
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	10:49
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	-1	0	3	2	0	19:58
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	14:33
M. FolignoLW · #17	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	12:39
R. HartmanRW · #38	1	1	-2	3	0	0	0	17:06
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	11:05
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	19:58
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-1	0	1	0	5	9:10
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	16:50
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	11:46
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	1	1	-1	4	0	0	2	17:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	14:30
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	14:58
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	-2	1	1	2	0	26:34
Q. HughesD · #43	0	2	-3	3	0	4	0	31:03
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:43
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	30	5	25	.833	57:48

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	1	3	2	0	1	0	12:24
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	18:12
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	11:35
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	11:18
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	13:10
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:27
E. LindholmC · #28	2	0	1	3	0	2	0	17:49
F. MintenC · #93	0	1	0	4	1	0	2	18:01
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	3	4	1	2	0	0	14:01
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	2	1	1	1	1	0	20:48
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	11:58
P. ZachaC · #18	2	0	3	4	0	0	0	15:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	14:46
H. LindholmD · #27	0	2	2	3	0	4	0	19:48
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	11:47
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	3	4	1	3	0	26:16
A. PeekeD · #26	1	0	0	3	4	3	0	20:55
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	1	1	2	1	2	22:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	34	3	31	.912	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 14

BOS2@

MIN6

Mar 28

MIN3@

BOS6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-11553%

BOS-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat MIN 6-3. P. Zacha led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	1	2	3
BOS	2	1	3	6

Period scoring

MIN won 0 · BOS won 2

MIN

BOS

Play-by-play · 357 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·BOS 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:26
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:26
Elias Lindholm Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (26)
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 6
3rd·19:05
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·19:04
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·18:50
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Nick Foligno
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·18:50
High Stick
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·18:33
Viktor Arvidsson shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·18:31
Charlie McAvoy hit Mats Zuccarello
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·18:16
Mats Zuccarello Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·17:58
Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·17:15
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·16:50
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·16:50
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·16:50
Pavel Zacha Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (25)
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Mats Zuccarello
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:09
Giveaway by Marat Khusnutdinov
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·16:02
Giveaway by Brock Faber
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:42
Joel Eriksson Ek hit Morgan Geekie
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:35
Takeaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:33
Giveaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:21
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:14
Vladimir Tarasenko Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:01
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:00
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·15:00
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·14:58
Andrew Peeke Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
3rd·14:56
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 4

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -115/BOS -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins held off Minnesota Wild, 6–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ryan Hartman · MIN16:540.7161.7%59.1%16:54 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 61.7% CF · 59.1% xGF
Pavel Zacha · BOS15:420.6145.7%43.0%15:42 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 45.7% CF · 43.0% xGF
Kirill Kaprizov · MIN19:540.6068.4%65.8%19:54 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 68.4% CF · 65.8% xGF
Matt Boldy · MIN20:300.5954.4%58.8%20:30 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 54.4% CF · 58.8% xGF
Mats Zuccarello · MIN17:540.5663.5%64.4%17:54 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 63.5% CF · 64.4% xGF
Elias Lindholm · BOS18:000.3541.5%39.7%18:00 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 41.5% CF · 39.7% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jeremy Swayman · BOS31–3.912+0.2631–3 · .912 SV% · +0.26 GSAx
Filip Gustavsson · MIN25–5.833-2.5425–5 · .833 SV% · -2.54 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
55.6%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.6%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.6%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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