Apr 4, 26sim 99
304
14(H)1
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+3BOS
MIN
41-21-12
36
BOS
41-24-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
oston Bruins held off Minnesota Wild, 6–3.
BOS +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer
Ryan Hartman
RW · #38
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
BOS · top performer
Casey Mittelstadt
C · #11
3Points
0
G
3
A
—
SOG
NHL · Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final
MIN41-21-12
36
BOS41-24-8
MIN41-21-12BOS41-24-8
MIN
41-21-12
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
BOS
41-24-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
11
PIM
13
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Dec 14BOS2@MIN6
BOS2@MIN6Mar 28MIN3@BOS6today
MIN3@BOS6todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN-11553%BOS-10551%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BOS beat MIN 6-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| BOS | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · BOS won 2
0
2
1
1
1
2
2
3
3
MIN
BOS
Play-by-play · 357 plays
period
event
player
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·BOS 6
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·BOS 6
- 3rd·19:26
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·BOS 6
- 3rd·19:26
Elias Lindholm Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (26)
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 6
- 3rd·19:05
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·19:04
Giveaway by Nikita Zadorov
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·18:50
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Nick Foligno
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·18:50
High Stick
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·18:33
Viktor Arvidsson shot blocked by Quinn Hughes
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·18:31
Charlie McAvoy hit Mats Zuccarello
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·18:16
Mats Zuccarello Snap Shot Wide Left
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·17:58
Vladimir Tarasenko shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·17:15
Kirill Kaprizov Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·16:50
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·16:50
Timeout - Visitor
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·16:50
Pavel Zacha Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (25)
·
MIN 3·BOS 5
- 3rd·16:42
Giveaway by Kirill Kaprizov
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Mats Zuccarello
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:09
Giveaway by Marat Khusnutdinov
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·16:02
Giveaway by Brock Faber
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:42
Joel Eriksson Ek hit Morgan Geekie
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:35
Takeaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:33
Giveaway by Matt Boldy
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:21
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:14
Vladimir Tarasenko Tip-In saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:01
Morgan Geekie shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:00
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·15:00
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·14:58
Andrew Peeke Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
MIN 3·BOS 4
- 3rd·14:56
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
· ·
MIN 3·BOS 4
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
BOS
Home
34
Shots
31
33.3
PCT
0.0
11
PIM
13
25
Faceoffs W
33
11
Blocks
23
22
Giveaways
18
7
Takeaways
3
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -115/BOS -105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
Brock FaberMIN · DBURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LWSHOT MPH92.897
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LWSKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · DBURSTS1895
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · CSHOT MPH92.195
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-105
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
48.9%
Close no-vig
48.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
BOS vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 123 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Matt BoldyMIN3.8± 1.9high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN3.3± 1.6high
- David PastrnakBOS3.2± 2.2high
Goals
- Morgan GeekieBOS0.6± 0.9high
- Matt BoldyMIN0.5± 0.7high
- Joel Eriksson EkMIN0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Quinn HughesMIN1.3± 1.1high
- Kirill KaprizovMIN1.2± 1.1high
- David PastrnakBOS1.1± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands