Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at VGK?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

37-28-9

VGK

32-26-16

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-0VegasVGK -155

WSH · top performer

Justin Sourdif

RW · #34

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:07
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	18:17
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	1	1	0	4	2	0	15:53
H. LapierreC · #29	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:05
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	1	0	4	2	0	0	15:17
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	1	-2	1	1	0	0	20:10
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	7:50
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	17:35
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:27
J. SourdifRW · #34	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	17:34
D. StromeC · #17	1	0	-1	2	0	1	4	19:10
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-2	1	2	0	2	24:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	23:55
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-1	1	1	5	0	20:14
C. HutsonD · #44	0	2	-1	2	1	0	0	15:11
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:26
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	21:25
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	19:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	29	4	25	.862	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:48
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	19:13
N. DowdC · #26	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:56
J. EichelC · #9	1	2	2	2	0	1	0	23:23
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-2	4	2	0	0	12:23
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:25
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	10:48
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	22:19
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	10:49
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	9:24
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	1	2	3	2	0	12:55
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	1	1	2	2	1	2	2	23:20
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	4	1	1	2	20:45
B. HuttonD · #17	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:29
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	2	2	2	1	0	18:09
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	21:14
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	22	4	18	.818	64:52

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 2-0

Feb 28

VGK2@

WSH3

Mar 29

WSH5@

VGK4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+13043%

VGK-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat VGK 5-4. J. Sourdif led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
WSH	1	2	1	0	1	5
VGK	0	3	1	0	0	4

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · VGK won 1

WSH

VGK

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
End of OT
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Pierre-Luc Dubois Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Jack Eichel Backhand saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Ryan Leonard Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Dylan Strome Goal Backhand
WSH 1·VGK 0
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
WSH 1·VGK 0
OT·5:00
End of OT
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·4:35
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·4:35
Timeout - Visitor
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·4:35
Noah Hanifin Slashing against Justin Sourdif
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·4:04
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·4:04
Goalie Stopped
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·4:01
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·3:53
Giveaway by Dylan Strome
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·3:49
Giveaway by Mark Stone
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·3:21
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·3:21
Goalie Stopped
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·3:18
Dylan Strome Slap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·2:50
Pierre-Luc Dubois Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·2:43
Takeaway by Anthony Beauvillier
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·2:24
Giveaway by Pierre-Luc Dubois
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·2:12
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·2:12
Puck in Netting
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·2:10
Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·1:31
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 4·VGK 4
OT·1:31
On-Ice Official
WSH 4·VGK 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +130/VGK -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 5–4.

WSH +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
53.6%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.6%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at VGK?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL