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FINAL+3EDM
EDM

EDM

35-28-9

52
UTA

UTA

37-29-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesEDM leads series 2-0VegasUTAH -135

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 5–2.

EDM +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
Michael Carcone

Michael Carcone

LW · #53

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
2
EDM35-28-9UTA37-29-6
EDM

EDM

35-28-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

37-29-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

0

Season series

EDM leads series 2-0

Oct 29UTAUTA3@EDMEDM6
Mar 25EDMEDM5@UTAUTA2today
Apr 8EDMEDM5@UTAUTA6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM+11447%
UTAUTA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat UTA 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM1315
UTA1102

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · UTA won 0

1
1

1

3
1

2

1
0

3

EDM
UTA

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 5·UTA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 5·UTA 2

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Josh Samanski

    ·

    EDM 5·UTA 2

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Connor McDavid Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    EDM 5·UTA 2

  5. 3rd·19:49

    Takeaway by Connor McDavid

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  6. 3rd·19:45

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  7. 3rd·19:24

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  8. 3rd·19:24

    Icing

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  9. 3rd·19:14

    Giveaway by Evan Bouchard

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  10. 3rd·19:10

    Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Evan Bouchard

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  11. 3rd·19:00

    Zach Hyman shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  12. 3rd·18:55

    Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  13. 3rd·18:55

    Icing

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  14. 3rd·18:16

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Jack McBain

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  15. 3rd·18:16

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  16. 3rd·18:14

    Dylan Guenther Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  17. 3rd·17:50

    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Sean Durzi

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  18. 3rd·17:47

    Clayton Keller Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  19. 3rd·17:03

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  20. 3rd·16:42

    Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  21. 3rd·16:36

    Giveaway by Connor McDavid

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  22. 3rd·16:33

    Giveaway by JJ Peterka

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  23. 3rd·16:28

    Logan Cooley faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  24. 3rd·16:28

    Icing

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  25. 3rd·16:18

    Kailer Yamamoto faceoff won against Connor McDavid

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  26. 3rd·16:18

    Puck in Netting

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  27. 3rd·16:16

    Michael Carcone shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  28. 3rd·16:01

    Zach Hyman hit Alexander Kerfoot

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  29. 3rd·15:58

    Michael Carcone Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

  30. 3rd·15:50

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek

    ·

    EDM 4·UTA 2

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

26

Shots

18

0.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

0

27

Faceoffs W

29

24

Blocks

20

14

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +114/UTA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Mattias EkholmEDM · D
    SHOT MPH92.979

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR