Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3EDM

EDM

35-28-9

UTA

37-29-6

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesEDM leads series 2-0VegasUTAH -135

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

2Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Lawson Crouse

LW · #67

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	16:36
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	10:04
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	1	3	0	7	0	2	17:42
R. JarventieLW · #15	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	8:52
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:32
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:03
C. McDavidC · #97	2	0	2	4	0	1	0	20:42
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	1	3	2	0	3	0	17:08
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:44
J. RoslovicC · #28	2	0	2	4	1	1	0	15:44
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:43
M. SavoieC · #22	1	0	2	4	1	0	0	17:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	3	4	3	0	3	0	23:04
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	4	3	1	0	0	21:00
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	15:33
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	21:05
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	21:42
J. WalmanD · #96	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	17:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JarryG · #35	18	2	16	.889	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	15:40
L. CooleyC · #92	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	19:30
L. CrouseLW · #67	1	0	-1	3	2	2	0	19:14
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	22:12
B. HaytonC · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:17
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	-2	4	0	1	0	22:48
A. KerfootC · #15	1	0	-2	2	2	0	0	12:23
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	16:30
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	15:45
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:44
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	10:42
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	15:17
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	-1	1	0	4	0	18:07
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:48
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	19:29
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	-3	0	0	4	0	22:30
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	-1	1	3	1	0	19:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	15	4	11	.733	40:00
V. VanecekG · #41	10	0	10	1.000	17:28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM leads series 2-0

Oct 29

UTA3@

EDM6

Mar 25

EDM5@

UTA2today

Apr 8

EDM5@

UTA6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM+11447%

UTA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat UTA 5-2. C. McDavid led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	1	3	1	5
UTA	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · UTA won 0

EDM

UTA

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 5·UTA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 5·UTA 2
3rd·19:52
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
EDM 5·UTA 2
3rd·19:52
Connor McDavid Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: none
EDM 5·UTA 2
3rd·19:49
Takeaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:45
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:24
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Jack McBain
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:24
Icing
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Evan Bouchard
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:10
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Evan Bouchard
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·19:00
Zach Hyman shot blocked by Mikhail Sergachev
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:55
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Jason Dickinson
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:55
Icing
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:16
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Jack McBain
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:16
Goalie Stopped
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·18:14
Dylan Guenther Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:50
Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Sean Durzi
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:47
Clayton Keller Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·17:03
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:42
Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:36
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:33
Giveaway by JJ Peterka
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:28
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:28
Icing
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:18
Kailer Yamamoto faceoff won against Connor McDavid
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:18
Puck in Netting
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:16
Michael Carcone shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·16:01
Zach Hyman hit Alexander Kerfoot
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:58
Michael Carcone Snap Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 4·UTA 2
3rd·15:50
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Wrist Shot saved by Vitek Vanecek
·
EDM 4·UTA 2

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +114/UTA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 5–2.

EDM +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
61.1%
P(UTA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.1%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.1%
P(UTA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL