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FINAL+3MTL
CAR

CAR

45-20-6

25
MTL

MTL

39-21-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesMTL leads series 2-0VegasCAR -125

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
5
CAR45-20-6MTL39-21-10
CAR

CAR

45-20-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

39-21-10

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Playoff series

May 22MTLMTL6@CARCAR2
May 23MTLMTL2@CARCAR3
May 26CARCAR3@MTLMTL2
May 28CARCAR4@MTLMTL0
May 30MTLMTL1@CARCAR6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-12556%
MTLMTL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 5-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CAR2002
MTL1225

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · MTL won 2

2
1

1

0
2

2

0
2

3

CAR
MTL

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  3. 3rd·19:49

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Jankowski

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  4. 3rd·19:49

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  5. 3rd·19:47

    Mark Jankowski Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  6. 3rd·19:00

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Jake Evans Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (15)

    · ·

    CAR 2·MTL 5

  8. 3rd·18:39

    Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Nick Suzuki

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  9. 3rd·18:33

    Seth Jarvis Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  10. 3rd·18:24

    Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Mike Matheson

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  11. 3rd·18:14

    Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  12. 3rd·18:12

    Jordan Staal shot blocked by Mike Matheson

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  13. 3rd·18:08

    Jackson Blake Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  14. 3rd·18:07

    Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  15. 3rd·18:02

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  16. 3rd·18:02

    Icing

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  17. 3rd·17:57

    Josh Anderson Snap Shot Wide Right

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  18. 3rd·17:47

    Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Short

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  19. 3rd·17:38

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  20. 3rd·17:38

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  21. 3rd·17:29

    Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  22. 3rd·16:42

    Jordan Staal hit Jake Evans

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  23. 3rd·16:41

    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  24. 3rd·16:33

    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  25. 3rd·16:30

    Giveaway by Alexander Nikishin

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  26. 3rd·16:23

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  27. 3rd·16:23

    Icing

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  28. 3rd·16:16

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  29. 3rd·16:16

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 2·MTL 4

  30. 3rd·16:13

    Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    CAR 2·MTL 4

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

43

Shots

19

50.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

6

31

Faceoffs W

31

11

Blocks

23

16

Giveaways

12

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -125/MTL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ivan DemidovMTL · RW
    DIST MI49.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR