Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MTL

CAR

45-20-6

MTL

39-21-10

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesMTL leads series 2-0VegasCAR -125

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	-2	2	1	1	2	21:25
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	16:46
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:05
N. EhlersLW · #27	1	0	-1	5	0	0	0	16:42
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	15:51
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:59
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	-3	5	0	1	0	20:51
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	13:12
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:03
J. StaalC · #11	1	0	-1	2	4	1	0	16:57
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	14:36
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	-2	0	4	0	0	17:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:20
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-3	3	0	0	2	19:10
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	20:49
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:22
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	22:19
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	-2	4	3	1	2	19:53

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	18	4	14	.778	56:46

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	12:43
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	15:57
C. CaufieldRW · #13	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:33
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:06
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	11:58
J. EvansC · #71	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:40
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:18
O. KapanenC · #91	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:04
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:36
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	1	2	1	0	3	2	19:30
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	2	2	1	3	0	21:39
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	19:18
N. DobsonD · #53	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	20:50
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	1	0	8	2	2	20:30
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	2	2	0	3	0	18:54
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	21:44
J. StrubleD · #47	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	14:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	43	2	41	.953	59:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 22

MTL6@

CAR2

May 23

MTL2@

CAR3

May 26

CAR3@

MTL2

May 28

CAR4@

MTL0

May 30

MTL1@

CAR6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-12556%

MTL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CAR 5-2. C. Caufield led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	2	0	0	2
MTL	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · MTL won 2

CAR

MTL

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·19:49
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·19:49
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·19:47
Mark Jankowski Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·19:00
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·19:00
Jake Evans Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (15)
· ·
CAR 2·MTL 5
3rd·18:39
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:33
Seth Jarvis Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:24
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:14
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:12
Jordan Staal shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:08
Jackson Blake Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:07
Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:02
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·18:02
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·17:57
Josh Anderson Snap Shot Wide Right
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·17:47
Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Short
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·17:38
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·17:38
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·17:29
Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:42
Jordan Staal hit Jake Evans
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:41
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:33
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Alexander Nikishin
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:23
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:23
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:16
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:16
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·MTL 4
3rd·16:13
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -125/MTL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Seth Jarvis · CAR21:060.7467.3%69.5%21:06 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 67.3% CF · 69.5% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL18:480.6038.2%47.9%18:48 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 38.2% CF · 47.9% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR21:480.5471.7%66.4%21:48 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 71.7% CF · 66.4% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR15:540.4666.7%46.9%15:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 66.7% CF · 46.9% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR17:000.4473.8%59.0%17:00 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 73.8% CF · 59.0% xGF
Josh Anderson · MTL12:420.4135.5%45.4%12:42 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 35.5% CF · 45.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL41–2.953+2.1241–2 · .953 SV% · +2.12 GSAx
Frederik Andersen · CAR14–4.778-1.3214–4 · .778 SV% · -1.32 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
51.9%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.9%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.9%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesMontreal Canadiens

Elsewhere in the NHL