
CAR
45-20-6

MTL
39-21-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ontreal Canadiens held off Carolina Hurricanes, 5–2.
MTL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers
LW · #27
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield
RW · #13
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


CAR
45-20-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MTL
39-21-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
6
Playoff series
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MTL beat CAR 5-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
Period scoring
CAR won 1 · MTL won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 335 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·19:49
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·19:49
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·19:47
Mark Jankowski Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·19:00
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Oliver Kapanen
·
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·19:00
Jake Evans Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (15)
· ·
CAR 2·MTL 5
- 3rd·18:39
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:33
Seth Jarvis Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:24
Sebastian Aho shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:14
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:12
Jordan Staal shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:08
Jackson Blake Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:07
Jackson Blake Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:02
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·18:02
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:57
Josh Anderson Snap Shot Wide Right
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:47
Seth Jarvis Slap Shot Short
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:38
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:38
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·17:29
Taylor Hall Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:42
Jordan Staal hit Jake Evans
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:41
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:33
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Alexander Nikishin
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Alexander Nikishin
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:23
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:23
Icing
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:16
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:16
Goalie Stopped
CAR 2·MTL 4
- 3rd·16:13
Nikolaj Ehlers Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CAR 2·MTL 4
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
MTL
Home
43
Shots
19
50.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
6
31
Faceoffs W
31
11
Blocks
23
16
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
4
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -125/MTL +105
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RWBURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Ivan DemidovMTL · RWDIST MI49.298
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · MTL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+105
Close price
+105
Open no-vig
46.8%
Close no-vig
46.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit