Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NJ

36-32-2

DAL

43-17-11

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -162

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

2Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	6:33
J. BrattLW · #63	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:09
C. BrownRW · #16	1	0	2	4	0	1	0	18:08
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	7:11
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:17
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	16:22
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	13:52
N. HischierC · #13	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	20:05
J. HughesC · #86	2	0	0	2	0	3	0	19:20
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	2	3	1	3	2	18:33
D. MercerC · #91	0	1	2	1	2	1	0	16:54
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	6:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	1	0	3	2	2	18:32
D. HamiltonD · #7	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	21:01
L. HughesD · #43	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	21:29
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	19:12
S. NemecD · #17	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	16:57
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	2	2	0	2	0	0	19:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	27	4	23	.852	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:53
J. BennLW · #14	0	0	-3	0	2	2	0	15:00
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	13:51
M. BourqueC · #22	1	0	2	2	2	0	0	17:16
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	9:59
M. DucheneC · #95	0	1	-3	0	3	0	0	16:57
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:28
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	16:37
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:07
W. JohnstonC · #53	2	1	1	3	2	1	0	19:50
J. RobertsonLW · #21	1	2	1	10	1	1	2	21:17
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	17:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	13:57
T. HarleyD · #55	0	2	1	2	0	3	0	23:07
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	-2	3	1	1	4	24:50
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	22:24
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	1	2	3	1	1	0	15:53
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-4	0	0	1	0	16:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	8	4	4	.500	20:00
C. DeSmithG · #1	16	1	15	.938	37:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 4

DAL3@

NJ0

Mar 25

NJ6@

DAL4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+13642%

DAL-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat DAL 6-4. J. Hughes led the way — 2 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	4	0	2	6
DAL	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

NJ won 2 · DAL won 1

DAL

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 6·DAL 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 6·DAL 4
3rd·19:00
Cody Glass faceoff won against Justin Hryckowian
·
NJ 6·DAL 4
3rd·19:00
Dougie Hamilton Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none
NJ 6·DAL 4
3rd·18:55
Jamie Benn shot blocked by Matt Duchene
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·18:10
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·18:04
Nico Hischier shot blocked by Thomas Harley
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Matt Duchene
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·17:45
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·17:45
Timeout - Home
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·17:45
Icing
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·17:40
Dawson Mercer Snap Shot Wide Left
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·17:38
Jamie Benn hit Dougie Hamilton
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·17:18
Matt Duchene Batted Wide Right
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·16:47
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·16:47
Puck Frozen - Goalie
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·16:43
Giveaway by Cody Glass
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·16:03
Matt Duchene hit Connor Brown
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·16:01
Jamie Benn shot blocked by Johnathan Kovacevic
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·15:54
Giveaway by Luke Hughes
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·15:45
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Connor Brown
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·15:14
Giveaway by Jack Hughes
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·14:30
Giveaway by Dougie Hamilton
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·14:17
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·13:48
Mavrik Bourque hit Jonas Siegenthaler
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·13:44
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·13:44
Puck in Benches
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·13:40
Takeaway by Michael Bunting
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·13:34
Jamie Benn faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 5·DAL 4
3rd·13:34
Goalie Stopped
NJ 5·DAL 4

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ +136/DAL -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 6–4.

NJ +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.5%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
65.5%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.5%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.5%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL