Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

28-25-18

CGY

30-34-7

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesCGY leads series 2-1VegasLA -148

LA · top performer

Quinton Byfield

RW · #55

2Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Zayne Parekh

D · #19

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	10:24
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	19:50
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8:15
M. JosephRW · #17	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:59
A. KempeRW · #9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:46
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:45
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	20:10
S. LaughtonC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	16:05
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	7:16
T. MooreLW · #12	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	19:33
A. PanarinLW · #10	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	22:05
J. WrightRW · #53	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	12:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	1	3	1	3	0	21:15
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17:30
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	20:49
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	1	3	1	3	0	25:48
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	15:08
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	19:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	23	2	21	.913	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	19:25
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	19:54
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	19:12
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:05
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	19:08
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:44
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	9:03
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	8:26
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	16:09
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	9:12
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:59
R. StromeC · #22	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	15:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	22:41
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:50
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	14:15
O. MaattaD · #3	1	0	-1	1	0	4	0	20:25
Z. ParekhD · #19	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	17:43
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	27:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	25	2	23	.920	64:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY leads series 2-1

Dec 14

CGY2@

LA1

Mar 1

CGY0@

LA2

Mar 25

LA2@

CGY3today

Apr 17

LA1@

CGY3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-14860%

CGY+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 46 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat LA 3-2. Z. Parekh led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
LA	1	0	1	0	0	2
CGY	0	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

LA won 1 · CGY won 2

CGY

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Yegor Sharangovich Goal Wrist Shot
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Artemi Panarin Goal Wrist Shot
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Trevor Moore Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
LA 1·CGY 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
LA 1·CGY 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:48
Artemi Panarin Backhand Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:43
Takeaway by Artemi Panarin
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:34
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:27
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:10
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:40
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:40
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:37
Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:14
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·2:53
Yegor Sharangovich hit Drew Doughty
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·1:16
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·1:09
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·0:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 2·CGY 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 2·CGY 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 2·CGY 2
3rd·19:59
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 2·CGY 2
3rd·19:04
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 2·CGY 2

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -148/CGY +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Los Angeles Kings, 3–2.

CGY +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
57.7%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.7%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.7%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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