Mar 22, 26sim 98
283
13(H)2
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1CGY
LA
28-25-18
23
CGY
30-34-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
algary Flames held off Los Angeles Kings, 3–2.
CGY +1.5 cashed (LA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LA · top performer
Quinton Byfield
RW · #55
2Points
2
G
0
A
—
SOG
CGY · top performer
Matt Coronato
RW · #27
1Points
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final/SO
LA28-25-18
23
CGY30-34-7
LA28-25-18CGY30-34-7
LA
28-25-18
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
CGY
30-34-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
4
Season series
CGY leads series 2-1
Dec 14CGY2@LA1
CGY2@LA1Mar 1CGY0@LA2
CGY0@LA2Mar 25LA2@CGY3today
LA2@CGY3todayApr 17LA1@CGY3
LA1@CGY3Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LA -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
LA-14860%CGY+12445%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
CGY beat LA 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | SO | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Period scoring
LA won 1 · CGY won 2
1
0
1
0
1
2
1
1
3
0
0
OT
0
1
SO
LA
CGY
Play-by-play · 310 plays
period
event
player
- SO·0:00
Game End
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
End of OT
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
End of Shootout
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Yegor Sharangovich Goal Wrist Shot
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Brandt Clarke Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Adrian Kempe Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Joel Farabee Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Artemi Panarin Goal Wrist Shot
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Trevor Moore Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
LA 1·CGY 2
- SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
LA 1·CGY 2
- OT·5:00
End of OT
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·4:48
Artemi Panarin Backhand Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·4:43
Takeaway by Artemi Panarin
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·4:34
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·4:27
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·4:10
Artemi Panarin Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·3:40
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·3:40
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·3:37
Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·3:14
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·2:53
Yegor Sharangovich hit Drew Doughty
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·1:16
Victor Olofsson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·1:09
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·0:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Quinton Byfield
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 2·CGY 2
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 2·CGY 2
- 3rd·19:59
Artemi Panarin Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
LA 2·CGY 2
- 3rd·19:04
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Scott Laughton
·
LA 2·CGY 2
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
CGY
Home
25
Shots
23
0.0
PCT
33.3
6
PIM
4
27
Faceoffs W
28
14
Blocks
16
16
Giveaways
15
6
Takeaways
4
Betting line
LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -148/CGY +124
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Mikael BacklundCGY · CSHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RWSHOT MPH92.691
Joel FarabeeCGY · LWDIST MI215.486- Matt CoronatoCGY · RWDIST MI214.185
Morgan FrostCGY · CBURSTS14285
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.6%
ensemble · CGY favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+124
Close price
+124
Open no-vig
42.8%
Close no-vig
42.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
CGY vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
141
projections · 126 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Alex LaferriereLA3.0± 1.6high
- Quinton ByfieldLA3.0± 2.2high
- Blake ColemanCGY2.7± 1.6high
Goals
- Adrian KempeLA0.5± 0.7high
- Blake ColemanCGY0.4± 0.7high
- Morgan FrostCGY0.4± 0.7high
Points
- Matt CoronatoCGY0.8± 0.8high
- Alex LaferriereLA0.8± 0.8high
- Artemi PanarinLA0.8± 0.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands