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FINAL+3NSH
SJ

SJ

32-31-6

36
NSH

NSH

34-28-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesNSH leads series 1-0VegasNSH -142

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off San Jose Sharks, 6–3.

NSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

SJ
Will Smith

Will Smith

C · #2

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Filip Forsberg

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
SJ32-31-6NSH34-28-9
SJ

SJ

32-31-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

34-28-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

8

Season series

NSH leads series 1-0

Mar 25SJSJ3@NSHNSH6today
Apr 5NSHNSH6@SJSJ3
Apr 14SJSJ3@NSHNSH2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJSJ+12045%
NSHNSH-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat SJ 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SJ1113
NSH5106

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · NSH won 1

1
5

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

SJ
NSH

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  3. 3rd·19:32

    Vincent Desharnais shot blocked by Zachary L'Heureux

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  4. 3rd·19:30

    Giveaway by Zachary L'Heureux

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  5. 3rd·19:26

    Barclay Goodrow shot blocked by Adam Wilsby

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  6. 3rd·19:14

    Nicolas Hague Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  7. 3rd·19:10

    Adam Gaudette hit Adam Wilsby

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  8. 3rd·18:50

    Fedor Svechkov hit Michael Misa

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  9. 3rd·18:15

    Zachary L'Heureux hit Pavol Regenda

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  10. 3rd·18:07

    Pavol Regenda hit Brady Skjei

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  11. 3rd·17:41

    Vincent Desharnais Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  12. 3rd·17:40

    Giveaway by Nick Perbix

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  13. 3rd·17:38

    Zack Ostapchuk hit Ryan Ufko

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  14. 3rd·17:17

    Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  15. 3rd·17:17

    Puck in Benches

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  16. 3rd·16:45

    Giveaway by Adam Wilsby

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  17. 3rd·16:31

    Matthew Wood faceoff won against Michael Misa

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  18. 3rd·16:31

    Hand Pass

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  19. 3rd·15:58

    Adam Wilsby Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  20. 3rd·15:55

    Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  21. 3rd·15:46

    Takeaway by Tyson Jost

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  22. 3rd·15:31

    Giveaway by Roman Josi

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  23. 3rd·14:50

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  24. 3rd·14:50

    Puck in Benches

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  25. 3rd·14:45

    Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  26. 3rd·14:45

    TV Timeout

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  27. 3rd·14:45

    Off-side

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  28. 3rd·14:16

    Takeaway by Mario Ferraro

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  29. 3rd·14:10

    Mario Ferraro Slap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    SJ 3·NSH 6

  30. 3rd·13:53

    Giveaway by John Klingberg

    SJ 3·NSH 6

Team stats

SJ

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

30

Shots

19

25.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

8

34

Faceoffs W

31

10

Blocks

16

16

Giveaways

16

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +120/NSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490
  • Adam WilsbyNSH · D
    BURSTS6889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR