Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3NSH

32-31-6

NSH

34-28-9

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesNSH leads series 1-0VegasNSH -142

SJ · top performer

Will Smith

C · #2

2Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	21:05
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	1	-1	1	1	0	2	16:00
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:02
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	9:14
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	10:58
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:58
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	15:03
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	11:06
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	-3	2	3	0	0	13:44
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-3	1	4	0	2	15:36
W. SmithC · #2	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	20:31
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	18:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	1	0	1	5	1	0	16:57
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:15
M. FerraroD · #38	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	22:20
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-2	1	2	1	0	19:07
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	1	0	2	2	0	0	17:47
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-2	2	4	0	0	23:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	19	6	13	.684	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:03
F. ForsbergLW · #9	1	2	2	3	1	3	0	15:08
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	15:47
T. JostC · #17	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	17:51
J. KemellRW · #25	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	13:19
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	0	0	3	2	2	15:51
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	3	3	1	0	0	0	14:44
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	16:31
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	-1	0	4	2	0	11:33
S. StamkosC · #91	1	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:17
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	11:59
M. WoodRW · #71	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	15:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	23:37
R. JosiD · #59	1	0	3	3	0	0	0	23:28
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:03
B. SkjeiD · #76	1	1	4	2	0	1	0	21:52
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:51
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	19:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	30	3	27	.900	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH leads series 1-0

Mar 25

SJ3@

NSH6today

Apr 5

NSH6@

SJ3

Apr 14

SJ3@

NSH2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+12045%

NSH-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 54 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat SJ 6-3. F. Forsberg led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	1	3
NSH	5	1	0	6

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · NSH won 1

NSH

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·19:32
Vincent Desharnais shot blocked by Zachary L'Heureux
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·19:30
Giveaway by Zachary L'Heureux
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·19:26
Barclay Goodrow shot blocked by Adam Wilsby
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·19:14
Nicolas Hague Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·19:10
Adam Gaudette hit Adam Wilsby
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·18:50
Fedor Svechkov hit Michael Misa
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·18:15
Zachary L'Heureux hit Pavol Regenda
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·18:07
Pavol Regenda hit Brady Skjei
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·17:41
Vincent Desharnais Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·17:40
Giveaway by Nick Perbix
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·17:38
Zack Ostapchuk hit Ryan Ufko
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·17:17
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·17:17
Puck in Benches
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·16:45
Giveaway by Adam Wilsby
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·16:31
Matthew Wood faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·16:31
Hand Pass
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·15:58
Adam Wilsby Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·15:55
Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·15:46
Takeaway by Tyson Jost
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·15:31
Giveaway by Roman Josi
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:50
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:50
Puck in Benches
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:45
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:45
TV Timeout
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:45
Off-side
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:16
Takeaway by Mario Ferraro
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·14:10
Mario Ferraro Slap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
SJ 3·NSH 6
3rd·13:53
Giveaway by John Klingberg
SJ 3·NSH 6

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +120/NSH -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off San Jose Sharks, 6–3.

NSH -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.7%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
58.7%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.7%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.7%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL