NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

MIN

40-20-12

44-21-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -148

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Minnesota Wild, 6–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

Vladimir Tarasenko

RW · #91

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MIN40-20-12

TB44-21-5

MIN40-20-12TB44-21-5

MIN

40-20-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

44-21-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 4

TB1@

MIN5

Mar 24

MIN3@

TB6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+12445%

TB-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat MIN 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	1	0	3
TB	0	3	3	6

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · TB won 2

MIN

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·19:36
Nick Paul faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·19:36
Pontus Holmberg Goal (11) , assists: Ryan McDonagh (9)
·
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·18:42
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 3·TB 5
3rd·18:42
Brandon Hagel Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (7)
·
MIN 3·TB 5
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Quinn Hughes
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:17
Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:07
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:07
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:05
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:48
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:48
Off-side
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:38
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:38
Ryan Hartman Cross-checking against Pontus Holmberg
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:38
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:36
Bobby Brink Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:35
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:31
Takeaway by Marcus Johansson
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:28
Marcus Johansson Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:07
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:07
On-Ice Official Video Review
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:07
Erik Cernak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (18), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)
· ·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·16:38
Emil Lilleberg Slap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:37
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:37
Icing
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:24
Takeaway by Brayden Point
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:08
Takeaway by Joel Eriksson Ek
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:05
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·15:34
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·TB 3

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +124/TB -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296
Quinn HughesMIN · D
BURSTS1895
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C
SHOT MPH92.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Mats ZuccarelloMIN
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands