Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

MIN

40-20-12

44-21-5

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -148

MIN · top performer

Vladimir Tarasenko

RW · #91

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Darren Raddysh

D · #43

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	1	-1	2	0	3	0	21:15
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	12:24
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:52
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	10:18
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	1	-1	1	2	2	2	16:10
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	14:10
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	21:31
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	0	1	1	7	11:07
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	1	1	-2	1	0	0	0	15:25
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	11:43
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	11:27
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	1	0	-2	1	0	0	0	15:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:52
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	18:13
B. FaberD · #7	1	0	-1	3	0	1	2	24:39
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	-2	0	0	1	0	28:52
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:16
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	19:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	24	4	20	.833	58:16

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CirelliC · #71	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:06
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:49
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	1	1	2	1	0	2	15:31
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	15:00
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	19:14
B. HagelLW · #38	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	18:49
P. HolmbergRW · #29	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	13:57
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	19:26
N. PaulLW · #20	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	12:44
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	8:37
B. PointC · #21	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:33
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	9:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	1	0	1	1	2	1	2	15:28
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	1	0	0	4	1	0	20:27
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	19:01
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	17:44
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	20:26
D. RaddyshD · #43	1	2	1	5	1	1	0	23:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	24	3	21	.875	59:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 4

TB1@

MIN5

Mar 24

MIN3@

TB6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+12445%

TB-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat MIN 6-3. D. Raddysh led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	2	1	0	3
TB	0	3	3	6

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · TB won 2

MIN

Play-by-play · 321 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·19:36
Nick Paul faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·19:36
Pontus Holmberg Goal (11) , assists: Ryan McDonagh (9)
·
MIN 3·TB 6
3rd·18:42
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 3·TB 5
3rd·18:42
Brandon Hagel Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Paul (7)
·
MIN 3·TB 5
3rd·18:37
Giveaway by Quinn Hughes
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:17
Mats Zuccarello shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:07
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:07
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·18:05
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:48
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Brayden Point
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:48
Off-side
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:38
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:38
Ryan Hartman Cross-checking against Pontus Holmberg
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:38
Goalie Stopped
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:36
Bobby Brink Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:35
Ryan Hartman shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:31
Takeaway by Marcus Johansson
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:28
Marcus Johansson Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:07
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:07
On-Ice Official Video Review
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·17:07
Erik Cernak Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (18), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)
· ·
MIN 3·TB 4
3rd·16:38
Emil Lilleberg Slap Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:37
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:37
Icing
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:24
Takeaway by Brayden Point
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:08
Takeaway by Joel Eriksson Ek
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·16:05
Joel Eriksson Ek Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
MIN 3·TB 3
3rd·15:34
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 3·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN +124/TB -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Minnesota Wild, 6–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Joel Eriksson Ek · MIN20:000.5550.0%52.9%20:00 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 50.0% CF · 52.9% xGF
Brayden Point · TBL17:540.5271.8%69.8%17:54 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 71.8% CF · 69.8% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL19:360.4864.7%63.3%19:36 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 64.7% CF · 63.3% xGF
Gage Goncalves · TBL15:360.4167.7%68.8%15:36 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 67.7% CF · 68.8% xGF
Bobby Brink · MIN12:240.3658.3%53.2%12:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 58.3% CF · 53.2% xGF
Brandon Hagel · TBL19:060.3356.4%48.2%19:06 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 56.4% CF · 48.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL21–3.875-0.8021–3 · .875 SV% · -0.80 GSAx
Filip Gustavsson · MIN20–4.833-1.4320–4 · .833 SV% · -1.43 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
61.3%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.3%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.3%
P(TB win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildTampa Bay Lightning

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