Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at WPG?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WPG

VGK

32-26-14

WPG

30-29-12

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasVGK -135

VGK · top performer

Rasmus Andersson

D · #4

1Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	-2	2	1	0	0	16:55
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	5	1	0	0	17:30
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	-1	0	0	1	2	10:56
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	22:37
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:12
B. HowdenC · #21	0	1	-2	0	2	0	5	12:21
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	8:08
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	21:29
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	14:22
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	12:54
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:45
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	21:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	1	0	-1	2	0	1	0	19:35
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	0	0	5	2	20:43
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	15:07
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	19:24
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	16:46
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	19:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	20	3	17	.850	57:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	13:47
K. ConnorLW · #81	1	1	3	2	0	1	0	20:16
A. IafalloLW · #9	1	0	2	2	0	2	2	14:28
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:10
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:57
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:31
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:48
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:34
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:09
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	2	3	3	1	0	5	17:43
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:54
G. VilardiC · #13	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	1	3	1	0	1	0	18:43
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:24
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	22:16
N. PionkD · #4	0	0	2	3	1	1	2	20:57
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	18:12
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	0	2	3	2	22:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 7

VGK4@

WPG3

Mar 25

VGK1@

WPG4today

Apr 14

WPG2@

VGK6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-13557%

WPG+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 48 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat VGK 4-1. M. Scheifele led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	1	0	1
WPG	1	2	1	4

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · WPG won 3

VGK

WPG

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 1·WPG 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:47
Cole Koepke shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak
·
VGK 1·WPG 4
3rd·19:40
Jeremy Lauzon hit Morgan Barron
·
VGK 1·WPG 4
3rd·18:42
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
VGK 1·WPG 4
3rd·18:42
Mark Scheifele Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (49)
·
VGK 1·WPG 4
3rd·18:02
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·18:02
Icing
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:57
Neal Pionk Wrist Shot Wide Right
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Mark Stone
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:25
Josh Morrissey hit Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:22
Jack Eichel Slap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·17:02
Pavel Dorofeyev Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·16:13
Shea Theodore Slap Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:59
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:59
Goalie Stopped
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:57
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:46
Mark Stone Tip-In Wide Left
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:42
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:42
TV Timeout
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:42
Dylan Samberg High-sticking against Reilly Smith
· ·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:31
Gustav Nyquist hit Shea Theodore
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:14
Dylan Samberg hit Brett Howden
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·15:02
Elias Salomonsson Backhand saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·14:20
Pavel Dorofeyev Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·14:00
Morgan Barron Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·13:59
Morgan Barron Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·13:36
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·13:15
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
VGK 1·WPG 3
3rd·13:15
Goalie Stopped
VGK 1·WPG 3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -135/WPG +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
54.0%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.0%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.0%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at WPG?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL