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FINAL+3WPG
VGK

VGK

32-26-14

14
WPG

WPG

30-29-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasVGK -135

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets held off Vegas Golden Knights, 4–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Mark Scheifele

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
VGK32-26-14WPG30-29-12
VGK

VGK

32-26-14

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

30-29-12

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

PIM

13

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 7VGKVGK4@WPGWPG3
Mar 25VGKVGK1@WPGWPG4today
Apr 14WPGWPG2@VGKVGK6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-13557%
WPGWPG+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat VGK 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK0101
WPG1214

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · WPG won 3

0
1

1

1
2

2

0
1

3

VGK
WPG

Play-by-play · 282 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 1·WPG 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 1·WPG 4

  3. 3rd·19:47

    Cole Koepke shot blocked by Kaedan Korczak

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 4

  4. 3rd·19:40

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Morgan Barron

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 4

  5. 3rd·18:42

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 4

  6. 3rd·18:42

    Mark Scheifele Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (49)

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 4

  7. 3rd·18:02

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Morgan Barron

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  8. 3rd·18:02

    Icing

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  9. 3rd·17:57

    Neal Pionk Wrist Shot Wide Right

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  10. 3rd·17:35

    Giveaway by Mark Stone

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  11. 3rd·17:25

    Josh Morrissey hit Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  12. 3rd·17:22

    Jack Eichel Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  13. 3rd·17:02

    Pavel Dorofeyev Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  14. 3rd·16:13

    Shea Theodore Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  15. 3rd·15:59

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  16. 3rd·15:59

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  17. 3rd·15:57

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  18. 3rd·15:46

    Mark Stone Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  19. 3rd·15:42

    Morgan Barron faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  20. 3rd·15:42

    TV Timeout

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  21. 3rd·15:42

    Dylan Samberg High-sticking against Reilly Smith

    · ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  22. 3rd·15:31

    Gustav Nyquist hit Shea Theodore

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  23. 3rd·15:14

    Dylan Samberg hit Brett Howden

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  24. 3rd·15:02

    Elias Salomonsson Backhand saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  25. 3rd·14:20

    Pavel Dorofeyev Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  26. 3rd·14:00

    Morgan Barron Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  27. 3rd·13:59

    Morgan Barron Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  28. 3rd·13:36

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  29. 3rd·13:15

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Adam Lowry

    ·

    VGK 1·WPG 3

  30. 3rd·13:15

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 1·WPG 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

27

Shots

21

25.0

PCT

0.0

13

PIM

13

25

Faceoffs W

27

14

Blocks

9

11

Giveaways

9

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 5.5·VGK -135/WPG +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR