Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CHI

CHI

27-31-13

NYI

40-27-5

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -166

CHI · top performer

Nick Lardis

LW · #76

3Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:53
T. BertuzziLW · #59	1	1	2	2	2	0	2	19:15
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:09
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	15:51
A. FrondellC · #15	0	1	-1	2	1	2	0	15:43
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	18:29
S. LaffertyC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:11
N. LardisLW · #76	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	14:12
I. MikheyevRW · #95	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	19:33
F. NazarC · #91	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:43
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:39
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:48
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	11:26
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	19:46
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-1	2	4	2	0	23:12
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	2	1	1	2	0	17:20
A. VlasicD · #72	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	25:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SoderblomG · #40	47	3	44	.936	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	19:32
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	11:05
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	1	5	0	0	7:06
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	0	7	3	0	17:27
S. HolmstromRW · #92	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:56
B. HorvatC · #14	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	22:03
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:39
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	7:28
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:04
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	14:06
C. RitchieC · #64	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:00
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	18:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	17:57
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:09
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	1	-1	2	2	3	0	18:05
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	-1	5	2	0	4	21:58
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	31:59
C. SoucyD · #4	0	1	-2	1	2	1	0	20:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	12	3	9	.750	20:00
I. SorokinG · #30	12	1	11	.917	37:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31

NYI3@

CHI2

Mar 24

CHI4@

NYI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+14042%

NYI-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 85 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat NYI 4-3. N. Lardis led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	3	1	0	4
NYI	1	0	2	3

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · NYI won 1

CHI

NYI

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:58
Frank Nazar Snap Shot Wide Left
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:49
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:41
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:41
Goalie Stopped
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:37
Bo Horvat Tip-In Wide Left
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:33
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan Greene
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:33
Ryan Donato Tripping against Anders Lee
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:28
Giveaway by Ryan Donato
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:27
Giveaway by Calum Ritchie
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:15
Giveaway by Calum Ritchie
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:09
Anders Lee Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:04
Tyler Bertuzzi hit Brayden Schenn
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:39
Ryan Donato faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:39
Timeout - Home
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:39
Puck Frozen - Skater
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:12
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·17:43
Mathew Barzal Backhand saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·17:08
Anders Lee Tip-In High and Wide Right
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·16:52
Bo Horvat Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·16:41
Emil Heineman hit Alex Vlasic
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·16:37
Frank Nazar faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·16:37
Calum Ritchie Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (6), Mathew Barzal (47)
· ·
CHI 4·NYI 3
3rd·16:36
Carson Soucy Slap Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom
·
CHI 4·NYI 2
3rd·15:14
Simon Holmstrom Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CHI 4·NYI 2
3rd·15:03
Takeaway by Tyler Bertuzzi
CHI 4·NYI 2
3rd·14:58
Ondrej Palat shot blocked by Artyom Levshunov
·
CHI 4·NYI 2
3rd·14:28
Anders Lee hit Sam Lafferty
·
CHI 4·NYI 2
3rd·13:50
Carson Soucy hit Ryan Greene
·
CHI 4·NYI 2

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +140/NYI -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks went into New York Islanders and beat them, 4–3.

CHI +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Bo Horvat · NYI22:061.1263.6%71.5%22:06 TOI · 1.12 iXG · 63.6% CF · 71.5% xGF
Brayden Schenn · NYI18:480.6373.0%73.2%18:48 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 73.0% CF · 73.2% xGF
Matthew Schaefer · NYI32:120.6172.0%71.5%32:12 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 72.0% CF · 71.5% xGF
Mathew Barzal · NYI19:360.5176.9%76.3%19:36 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 76.9% CF · 76.3% xGF
Marc Gatcomb · NYI7:060.4668.8%90.3%7:06 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 68.8% CF · 90.3% xGF
Jean-Gabriel Pageau · NYI15:540.4563.2%48.5%15:54 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 63.2% CF · 48.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Arvid Soderblom · CHI44–3.936+2.1744–3 · .936 SV% · +2.17 GSAx
Ilya Sorokin · NYI11–1.917+0.0711–1 · .917 SV% · +0.07 GSAx
David Rittich · NYI9–3.750-1.729–3 · .750 SV% · -1.72 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.4%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
68.4%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.4%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.4%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-166

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Chicago BlackhawksNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL