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FINAL+1CHI
CHI

CHI

27-31-13

43
NYI

NYI

40-27-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -166

Recap · NHL

hicago Blackhawks went into New York Islanders and beat them, 4–3.

CHI +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHI · top performer

CHI
Nick Lardis

Nick Lardis

LW · #76

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

NYI
Mathew Barzal

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
3
CHI27-31-13NYI40-27-5
CHI

CHI

27-31-13

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYI

NYI

40-27-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 31NYINYI3@CHICHI2
Mar 24CHICHI4@NYINYI3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHICHI+14042%
NYINYI-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat NYI 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CHI3104
NYI1023

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · NYI won 1

3
1

1

1
0

2

0
2

3

CHI
NYI

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Frank Nazar Snap Shot Wide Left

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  4. 3rd·19:49

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  5. 3rd·19:41

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  6. 3rd·19:41

    Goalie Stopped

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  7. 3rd·19:37

    Bo Horvat Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  8. 3rd·19:33

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  9. 3rd·19:33

    Ryan Donato Tripping against Anders Lee

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  10. 3rd·19:28

    Giveaway by Ryan Donato

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  11. 3rd·19:27

    Giveaway by Calum Ritchie

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  12. 3rd·19:15

    Giveaway by Calum Ritchie

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  13. 3rd·19:09

    Anders Lee Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  14. 3rd·19:04

    Tyler Bertuzzi hit Brayden Schenn

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  15. 3rd·18:39

    Ryan Donato faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  16. 3rd·18:39

    Timeout - Home

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  17. 3rd·18:39

    Puck Frozen - Skater

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  18. 3rd·18:12

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  19. 3rd·17:43

    Mathew Barzal Backhand saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  20. 3rd·17:08

    Anders Lee Tip-In High and Wide Right

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  21. 3rd·16:52

    Bo Horvat Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  22. 3rd·16:41

    Emil Heineman hit Alex Vlasic

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  23. 3rd·16:37

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  24. 3rd·16:37

    Calum Ritchie Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Carson Soucy (6), Mathew Barzal (47)

    · ·

    CHI 4·NYI 3

  25. 3rd·16:36

    Carson Soucy Slap Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 2

  26. 3rd·15:14

    Simon Holmstrom Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 2

  27. 3rd·15:03

    Takeaway by Tyler Bertuzzi

    CHI 4·NYI 2

  28. 3rd·14:58

    Ondrej Palat shot blocked by Artyom Levshunov

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 2

  29. 3rd·14:28

    Anders Lee hit Sam Lafferty

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 2

  30. 3rd·13:50

    Carson Soucy hit Ryan Greene

    ·

    CHI 4·NYI 2

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

24

Shots

47

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

23

Faceoffs W

32

14

Blocks

12

15

Giveaways

10

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +140/NYI -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-166

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR