Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2ANA

ANA

40-27-4

VAN

21-41-8

NHLTue, Mar 24FinalSeriesVAN leads series 2-1VegasANA -180

ANA · top performer

Mikael Granlund

C · #64

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Filip Hronek

D · #17

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	19:43
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	16:50
M. GranlundC · #64	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:30
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:05
A. KillornLW · #17	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:42
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	18:04
M. McTavishC · #23	1	0	2	3	1	0	0	12:42
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	16:02
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	1	0	2	4	0	2	9:44
T. TerryRW · #19	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	19:16
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:25
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	1	1	5	1	0	15:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	3	2	2	0	0	0	24:01
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	15:00
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	20:18
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	22:06
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:16
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	19:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DostalG · #1	30	3	27	.900	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:23
B. BoeserRW · #6	1	0	-2	3	0	0	0	18:53
J. DeBruskLW · #74	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	15:06
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	-2	3	2	0	2	6:55
E. KaneLW · #91	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	14:36
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:57
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	16:04
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:36
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	17:36
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	8:29
M. RossiC · #93	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	18:38
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	20:23
F. HronekD · #17	0	2	-3	5	1	1	0	26:27
P. JosephD · #7	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	12:48
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:55
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	15:38
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LankinenG · #32	33	4	29	.879	58:27

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VAN leads series 2-1

Nov 27

VAN5@

ANA4

Jan 30

ANA0@

VAN2

Mar 25

ANA5@

VAN3today

Apr 13

VAN4@

ANA3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-18064%

VAN+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat VAN 5-3. M. Granlund led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	0	2	3	5
VAN	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · VAN won 1

ANA

VAN

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 5·VAN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 5·VAN 3
3rd·19:55
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 5·VAN 3
3rd·19:55
Troy Terry Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (24), Leo Carlsson (36)
· ·
ANA 5·VAN 3
3rd·19:25
Troy Terry shot blocked by Elias Pettersson
· ·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·19:01
Giveaway by Jacob Trouba
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:57
Jake DeBrusk shot blocked by Tim Washe
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:56
Linus Karlsson Snap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Lukas Dostal
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:32
Tim Washe hit Evander Kane
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:07
John Carlson Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:05
Giveaway by Drew O'Connor
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·18:02
Giveaway by Pavel Mintyukov
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·17:32
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·17:31
Jeffrey Viel hit Brock Boeser
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·17:31
Jeffrey Viel Wrist Shot saved by Kevin Lankinen
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Filip Hronek
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·17:16
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
· ·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·17:16
Off-side
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by Jackson LaCombe
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:55
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:55
Icing
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:46
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Aatu Räty
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:46
Goalie Stopped
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:44
Evander Kane Deflected saved by Lukas Dostal
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:16
Takeaway by Tim Washe
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·15:05
Tim Washe hit Tom Willander
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·14:20
Jake DeBrusk Snap Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·13:59
Teddy Blueger faceoff won against Leo Carlsson
·
ANA 4·VAN 3
3rd·13:59
Net Dislodged Defensive Skater
ANA 4·VAN 3

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -180/VAN +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 5–3.

ANA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.8%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
40.8%
P(VAN win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
40.8%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
40.8%
P(VAN win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksVancouver Canucks

Elsewhere in the NHL