Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at NYM?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 30, 2026

FINAL+2NYM

MIA

55-55

NYM

47-63

Citi Field · Queens, New York

25,774 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

55.1%

open 54.2% · +0.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.9%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
45.8%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.6%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at NYM?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Eury PerezMIA
6.2± 2.9high
Christian ScottNYM
6.0± 1.6medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.1high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.1± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 2.4high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high
Joe MackMIA
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Kodai SengaNYM
2.8± 2.9low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
2.3± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.728

OPS

◀

.719

.687

.324

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.07

4.00

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.08

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

MIA 2 · NYM 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	2
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.283	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
X. Edwards2B	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.325	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Stowers1B	.233	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.238	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
G. ConineRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. MarseeCF	.197	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
G. Pauley3B	.190	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MackC	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. RuizRF	.254	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	7	2	2	3	9

Player

.283

.292

.325

.233

.238

.267

.197

.190

.233

.254

.264

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	6.0	3	2	1	2	6	97
L. BacharRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
M. PetersenRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	28
J. KingRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	8.0	6	4	3	2	8	143

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.268	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
F. LindorSS	.227	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
B. Bichette3B	.259	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
C. BengeRF	.261	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
L. Robert Jr.CF	.202	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.212	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PolancoDH	.140	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. AlvarezC	.257	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
T. TaylorLF	.239	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.253	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	6	3	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. McLeanSP	6.1	6	2	2	2	6	99
B. RaleyRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	14
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
Team	9.0	7	2	2	3	9	130

Team

MIA

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

NYM vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.